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Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter

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Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter Empty Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter

Post by First Guy on Sun Feb 15, 2015 5:39 pm

This is based on Dec quarter numbers (including the ratios) and only FYI. Click on the pic to see trailing 12 month analysis.

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Please do your own research before making your investment decision.
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Post by pathfinder on Sun Feb 15, 2015 5:57 pm

Thanks FG
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Post by chutiputha on Sun Feb 15, 2015 5:59 pm

Seems PAP is Ok @ Current
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Post by sashimaal on Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:07 pm

Thanks FG.

Annualized PE based on current qtr may be a bit too risky for Companies such as HPFL, as it had just one good qtr and that is this qtr.
Maybe this is the turning point...bit risky (of course may lead to high gain for some who wants to take the risk).
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Post by Nuinth on Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:07 pm

Thx FG, very useful, +.

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Post by First Guy on Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:12 pm

sashimaal wrote:Thanks FG.

Annualized PE based on current qtr may be a bit too risky for Companies such as HPFL, as it had just one good qtr and that is this qtr.
Maybe this is the turning point...bit risky (of course may lead to high gain for some who wants to take the risk).

True. But but I feel more can be expected of it in coming quarters. Click the pic to take you to the financials snapshot to see the trends in all these companies. Interesting that QoQ VPEL revenues and profit have dipped. All of these counters have unique points.

VPEL - strong dividend
VLL - adding capacity/buying stakes in other companies (PAP) etc., and starting to pay some good dividend
HPFL - just getting started and more to come perhaps
PAP - rather steady earnings compared to others.

Take March 2014 where most reported losses except PAP. Although Mar 2015 may not be the same, I expect some dip in earnings for Hydros this quarter QoQ.
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Post by Karan on Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:12 pm

HPFL more better for buy

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Post by sashimaal on Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:14 pm

Yes thanks, +

First Guy wrote:
sashimaal wrote:Thanks FG.

Annualized PE based on current qtr may be a bit too risky for Companies such as HPFL, as it had just one good qtr and that is this qtr.
Maybe this is the turning point...bit risky (of course may lead to high gain for some who wants to take the risk).

True. But but I feel more can be expected of it in coming quarters. Click the pic to take you to the financials snapshot to see the trends in all these companies. Interesting that QoQ VPEL revenues and profit have dipped. All of these counters have unique points.

VPEL - strong dividend
VLL - adding capacity/buying stakes in other companies (PAP) etc., and starting to pay some good dividend
HPFL - just getting started and more to come perhaps
PAP - rather steady earnings compared to others.

Take March 2014 where most reported losses except PAP. Although Mar 2015 may not be the same, I expect some dip in earnings for Hydros this quarter QoQ.
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Post by chinwi on Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:25 pm

Thanks.

My predictions about Hydro Power companies:

Trading prices in 12-15  months: Max to Min

HPWR > HPFL > VPEL > VLL > PAP


Note: Do not act based on this . Before my 12-15 month range many things can happen. You have to follow trends and trade but keep in mind the end products. Two 'H's should give max returns in long term.
HPWR has reported losses due to the reasons we all know   and it may create good opportunity to collect at bargain prices in next few moths.  The other H has connected new generator to the grid in last April and I hope they will connect the other one, their best motor, this year. After that I hope to get divorced from H and marry the other H.

 I like to use fundamentals like details as I go for  long term .
No threat to locally produced hydropower in next few years because of the  devaluation of our Rupee. I feel we may see 150/-  US$ in 15-20 months if no strong external support gained.

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Post by slstock on Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:45 pm

+rep.

HPWR ,
see below
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Post by Backstage on Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:08 pm

I see two variables in this sector that are risky. 1. The weather patterns .2. Tariff changes.
If not for that, I would have thrown the kitchen sink into VPEL.
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Post by First Guy on Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:23 pm

Backstage wrote:I see two variables in this sector that are risky. 1. The weather patterns .2. Tariff changes.
If not for that, I would have thrown the kitchen sink into VPEL.

Tariff changes - not much info on that with me.

But as for weather pattern changes, I feel at least one or two quarter there will be good production due to good rainfall which is adequate to provide good earnings. With increased capacity from few companies, this should also be negated. But we have to look at the seasonality and average it out. For example, Dec 2014 results alone should not be taken for decision making. Check  March 2014 quarter which was the worst in recent quarters. I guess we can expect reduced earnings in March 2015 as well but maybe not losses. (If we look only at one quarter people will end up giving target price like 200/- for a certain stock like one joker)

VPEL EPS reduced from 0.50/- to 0.37/- QoQ while the others improved. But VPEL is hot specially due to the large dividends at the moment.

disc: holding VPEL and small qty of HPFL
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Post by chinwi on Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:19 am

So far, 2015 Jan - Feb precipitation was not bad as 2014 same period.
Hence we can expect moderate or not-bad earnings for next qtr also. Then, APR-JUN is normally wet .
For HPFL they have Stellenberg this time which was not their during 2014 Jan-Mar.

We should know why VPEL under-performed while others grow QoQ. May be due to the locations of their pomphouses. Last year also it happened same way. JUL-SEP was better than OCT-DEC for VPEL.

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Post by serene on Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:10 am

Thanks FG very Useful.

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Post by DocStock on Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:40 am

This is neat. Thanks FG!
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Post by poor boy on Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:07 am

good table very useful.

in this sector hpwr still reporting losses.

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Post by chutiputha on Mon Feb 16, 2015 2:22 pm

Dealings with VLL

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First Guy wrote:This is based on Dec quarter numbers (including the ratios) and only FYI. Click on the pic to see trailing 12 month analysis.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Please do your own research before making your investment decision.
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Post by Crystal2008 on Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:21 pm

i bought some VLL shares and holding for almost 1 year.
I bought this share at that time, because it was trading its lowest price and always saw director buying at least 2-3 times per month. So i thought, there would be some future potential for this share
Later, I did not sell even i saw few times, share went to 6.00 - 6.30 range.
I saw their earnings are growing for time to time
Their yearly EPS was .34 in 2014 and for this year it's .75 already for 3Q, That is earnings increase of more than 100%
Currently i'm happy with my 78% unrealized profit Very Happy
Currently Share is trading in large volumes for last few weeks even before releasing their Dec accounts
After releasing Dec accounts, and considering their growth, i feel this share worth 7.00 - 7.50 range. I doubt that do i wait little bit more time to sell it Question
Hope to hear others opinion

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Post by slstock on Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:34 pm

Welcome. Glad to hear your success.

I usuallu don't like to tell people directlu to buy/sell/hold.

But I think this may not be the time to sell this. Watch carefully and if there is a negative development you can dispose and take profit.


Crystal2008 wrote:i bought some VLL shares and holding for almost 1 year.
I bought this share at that time, because it was trading its lowest price and always saw director buying at least 2-3 times per month. So i thought, there would be some future potential for this share
Later, I did not sell even i saw few times, share went to 6.00 - 6.30 range.
I saw their earnings are growing for time to time
Their yearly EPS was .34 in 2014 and for this year it's .75 already for 3Q, That is earnings increase of more than 100%
Currently i'm happy with my 78% unrealized profit Very Happy
Currently Share is trading in large volumes for last few weeks even before releasing their Dec accounts
After releasing Dec accounts, and considering their growth, i feel this share worth 7.00 - 7.50 range. I doubt that do i wait little bit more time to sell it Question
Hope to hear others opinion

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Post by baller on Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:57 am

Woah. What is happening with HPFL?

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Post by poor boy on Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:00 am

did a quick day trading on hpfl . good day.

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Post by baller on Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:22 am

Sell or hold? Any ideas? Thanks in advance

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Post by chinwi on Mon Feb 23, 2015 2:36 pm

My predictions about Hydro Power companies:

Trading prices in 12-15  months: Max to Min

HPWR > HPFL > VPEL > VLL > PAP

Time travelling ? or is it happening too early than I thought ?

Go ... HP go....  just 20 cents to beat VP !

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Post by Karan on Mon Feb 23, 2015 3:14 pm

What about MFL today .40 cents up and trading 7.00

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Post by HAL9000 on Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:39 pm

Last quarter we had unusually high rainfalls. So exceptional profits for many hydros so does the run. I think this sector we should enter and exit timely, During dry period price will plummet to bottom
l sold my VPEL and HPFL
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