The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans
Search
 
 

Display results as :
 


Rechercher Advanced Search

Latest topics
» සදහම් අටුවාව
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyYesterday at 1:24 pm by Ethical Trader

» Easter Sunday Attack and Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyYesterday at 12:45 pm by ruwan326

» අනං මනං! #/+?.<>
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptySun May 19, 2019 6:10 pm by ruwan326

» My Port Folio Bleeding But Its just the Begining Of..
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptySat May 18, 2019 7:40 pm by serene

» Thread for News on CSE and SL Economy
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptySat May 18, 2019 1:49 pm by ruwan326

» HNB.N0000 ( Hatton National Bank PLC)
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyFri May 17, 2019 9:54 pm by dhanurrox

» Re: Financial reports Q1-2019
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyFri May 17, 2019 7:53 pm by dhanurrox

» Sri Lanka mulls 25-pct ownership limit in finance companies
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyFri May 17, 2019 3:40 pm by Backstage

» Searing Heat in China Is Causing Havoc for Rubber Makers
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyFri May 17, 2019 2:43 pm by Backstage

» COMB.N0000 ( COMMERCIAL BANK OF CEYLON PLC )
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyThu May 16, 2019 8:00 pm by hammurabi

» Dividend Announcement
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyWed May 15, 2019 6:42 pm by Rana

» Israeli spyware breached WhatsApp security
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyWed May 15, 2019 7:47 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Is Burka prohibted ?
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyWed May 15, 2019 7:30 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Thread for General News Local/Foreign
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyTue May 14, 2019 11:49 am by CK

» Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyFri May 10, 2019 7:15 pm by Backstage

» NEST.N0000
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyThu May 09, 2019 7:54 pm by ruwan326

» What to Analyse
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyThu May 09, 2019 5:53 pm by Ethical Trader

» Sweden-based Tundra Fund says Colombo bourse at lowest levels since 2009
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyWed May 08, 2019 5:43 pm by serene

» Telenor and Dialog Axiata's parent in talks to merge Asian businesses
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyMon May 06, 2019 1:50 pm by Backstage

» සුබ පාස්කූ මංගල්ලයක් වේවා !
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptySun May 05, 2019 6:51 pm by Backstage

» In the Meantime, Within Our Shores !
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyThu May 02, 2019 11:27 am by Ethical Trader

» LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyWed May 01, 2019 3:49 am by Ethical Trader

» Thread for News on Local and Foreign Politics
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyFri Apr 26, 2019 8:18 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» how to access internet ?
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyFri Apr 26, 2019 7:55 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» SERV - The Kingsbury
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyThu Apr 25, 2019 9:26 am by ruwan326

» Lessons from movies
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyTue Apr 23, 2019 8:26 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» DFCC.N0000 ( DFCC BANK PLC )
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyMon Apr 22, 2019 12:38 pm by ruwan326

» Happy Birthday
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptySun Apr 21, 2019 8:13 pm by Rana

» Little Known Facts !
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptySun Apr 21, 2019 9:27 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» හීන්බන්ඩාගේ රැකියාව ඇසූ පසු පොලිස් නෝනලාට තරු පෙනුනා
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptySat Apr 20, 2019 10:07 am by ruwan326

» HASU.N0000 (HNB ASSURANCE PLC)
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyThu Apr 18, 2019 6:05 pm by Ethical Trader

» EAST WEST PROPERTIES PLC (EAST.N0000)
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyThu Apr 18, 2019 6:02 pm by Ethical Trader

» අසිරිමත් සුබ නව වසරකට ආසිරි !
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyWed Apr 17, 2019 6:33 pm by hammurabi

» SEYLAN DEVELOPMENTS PLC (CSD.N0000)
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyFri Apr 12, 2019 8:55 am by yellow knife

» East West properties
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyFri Apr 12, 2019 5:27 am by dhanurrox

» HHL.N0000 ( Hemas Holdings PLC)
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyTue Apr 09, 2019 8:04 pm by NIRMALSG

» කිරි පිටි ගැන ඔබ මෙතෙක් නොදත් දේ
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyMon Apr 08, 2019 5:31 am by Ethical Trader

» CONN.N0000
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptySun Apr 07, 2019 3:15 pm by NIRMALSG

» LION.N0000 (Lion Brewery Ceylon PLC)
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptySun Apr 07, 2019 8:52 am by ruwan326

»  5000 Post Milestone - Congratulations
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyFri Apr 05, 2019 9:07 pm by Ethical Trader

» NTB.N0000 (NATIONS TRUST BANK PLC)
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyFri Apr 05, 2019 1:37 pm by Ethical Trader

» Micro Finance
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyFri Apr 05, 2019 12:14 pm by yellow knife

» REXP.N0000 ( RICHARD PIERIS EXPORTS PLC)
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyFri Apr 05, 2019 7:40 am by serene

» PLC.N0000 ( People's Leasing and Fiance PLC)
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyWed Apr 03, 2019 6:04 pm by NIRMALSG

» VPEL.N0000 (VALLIBEL POWER ERATHNA PLC )
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyWed Apr 03, 2019 3:40 pm by catseye

» SAMP.N0000 (SAMPATH BANK PLC)
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyTue Apr 02, 2019 12:38 pm by malanp

» Sinhala Cinema
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyTue Apr 02, 2019 12:31 pm by yellow knife

» SEYB.N0000 ( SEYLAN BANK PLC )
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyTue Apr 02, 2019 11:23 am by Backstage

» LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyTue Apr 02, 2019 11:15 am by LSE

» NDB.N0000 (NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANK PLC)
Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor EmptyTue Apr 02, 2019 11:11 am by Backstage

May 2019
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
   1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031 

Calendar Calendar

Disclaimer


Information posted in this forum are entirely of the respective members' personal views. The views posted on this open online forum of contributors do not constitute a recommendation buy or sell. The site nor the connected parties will be responsible for the posts posted on the forum and will take best possible action to remove any unlawful or inappropriate posts.
All rights to articles of value authored by members posted on the forum belong to the respective authors. Re-using without the consent of the authors is prohibited. Due credit with links to original source should be given when quoting content from the forum.
This is an educational portal and not one that gives recommendations. Please obtain investment advises from a Registered Investment Advisor through a stock broker

Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor

Go down

Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor Empty Sri Lanka economic fundamentals strong; no fiscal slippage: CB Governor

Post by The Invisible on Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:12 am

ECONOMYNEXT - Sri Lanka has no seen no fiscal slippage with the budget set to post a primary surplus for the second year running and a higher than expected deficit coming only from natural disaster related spending, Central Bank Governor Indrajit Coomaraswamy said.

Growth, while low, was picking up, inflation was low and rates had been much higher than before.

Tough Reforms

"The government has gone through the new Inland Revenue Act, they have raised VAT (value added tax), incentives changed, fuel prices adjusted," Coomaraswamy told a business forum organized by Asia Securities, a Colombo-based brokerage.

"[It is- very difficult to argue that there has been major fiscal slippage."

"And last year for the second time in 54 years we have a surplus in the primary account and it is likely that we will have one this year as well.

"So, a structural improvement in the fiscal operations in the budget. Of course the government has to stay on course in the lead up to the elections.

"If not all bets are off. But up to now it is difficult to argue that there is slippage on the fiscal side."

Monetary Policy

He said Sri Lanka's nominal and real interest rates were "pretty high".

"On the monetary side one could argue that the central bank has been on the conservative," he said.

He said the ceiling policy rate was cut by 25 basis points in April to signal that there was a shift from a 'tightening' to a 'neutral' stance.

"But I do not think by any stretch of imagination one could argue that there had been a slippage in monetary policy," he said.

He said there had been no loosening of policy that had led to overheating of the economy.

Independent analysts agree that Sri Lanka's credit growth is weak and there is no great credit pressure.

Analysts who have correctly predicted BOP crises in the past, are not calling 2018 runs on the rupee, a BOP crisis, partly for the same reason.

However they have said that the central bank has a penchant to weaken the currency by mis-managing liquidity while running a de facto external anchor involving a real effective exchange rate peg which is not credible and runs are generated by scaring exporters and bond investors.

Growth picking up, Inflation still low

Coomaraswamy said growth was 'clearly inadequate' was 3.3 percent last year, 3.6 and 3.7 percent in the two quarters this year. Growth was expected to be about 4 percent.

"While growth is too slow, it is on the upward trend," Coomaraswamy said. "There is no sign of collapse.

"Structural reforms had to be persisted.

"Exports have been a record last year. It is going to be higher this year."

"Inflation is well within our target range - in fact at the bottom of the target range."

He said Colombo Consumer Price Index was about 4 percent for the last 12-months, core inflation was a little over 2.0 percent.

"There is no sign of macro-economic turbulence if you look at inflation," he said.

He said private sector credit grew by 14.3 percent and broad money defined at M2b by 13.5 percent.

The Treasury bill rate at the last auction was 10.44 percent for one year, having dipped it has gone up.

Interest rates, NPLs below decade highs

Analysts have welcomed the quick rise in Treasury bills, which will ward of speculation on the currency.

Critics say that the central bank had primarily generated balance of payments crisis in the past by purchasing vast amounts of bills at auction directly to inject liquidity and drive credit to unsustainable levels requiring un-necessarily high rate increases later.

In 2000 (after the 1999/2000 BOP crisis) T-bill rates had gone up to 18.22 percent.

In 2007 (around the time of the 2008 BOP crisis) it was 19.66 percent, in 2008, 19.12 percent.

In 2012 (in the 2011/2013 BOP crisis) it was 11.96 percent.

"The economy had had much higher interest rates and had not collapsed," Coomaraswamy said.



Non-performing loans in the banking sector had gone up from 2.5 percent in mid-last year to 3.5 percent following earlier credit growth and successive drought.

In 2009, NPLs were 8.8 percent and in 2014 NPLs were 6.2 percent.

"The financial system did not collapse in 2009 nor in 2014, so there is no way the financial system could collapse now," Coomaraswamy pointed out.

"Having said that with the build up of NPLs both banks and the central bank needs to be cautious."

External Snapshot

He said the current account deficit is going to be 3.0 percent of gross domestic product, which was higher than anticipated. He claimed it was partly due to gold imports, which had now come down after a an import tax was raised to match that of India.

He said a duty structure and 'very cheap petroleum' had caused contributed.

The margins in import letters of credit and tax changes are expected to be sufficient to curb car imports, he said. Oil was another, he said.

He said in 2000, the current account deficit was 6.4 percent of GDP, in 2006, 5.3 percent, 2008, 9.5 percent, 2011, 7.1 percent, 2012, 5.8 percent.

"Again no signs of major turbulence of an impending collapse of the economy," he said.

He said forex reserves were about 8.0 billion US dollars or a little less than 5 months of import cover, but it had been lower in the past.

"We feel this is an area we need to focus in a very concerted way," Coomaraswamy asid.

The active management act had been passed will also give more flexibility in managing debt. The peak debt rollover of 980 billion rupees had now passed, he said. (Colombo/Oct23/2018)
The Invisible
The Invisible

Posts : 883
Join date : 2016-11-28
Age : 39

Back to top Go down

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum