The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans
Search
 
 

Display results as :
 


Rechercher Advanced Search

Latest topics
» First capital holdings
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyToday at 12:33 am by pathfinder

» Thread for News on CSE and SL Economy
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyYesterday at 7:02 pm by NIRMALSG

» Happy Father's Day !
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyMon Jun 17, 2019 8:58 pm by spw19721

» Dividend Announcement
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyMon Jun 17, 2019 6:57 pm by chutiputha

» Cricket !
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyMon Jun 17, 2019 8:20 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» DPL.N0000 (Dankotuwa Porcelain PLC)
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptySun Jun 16, 2019 7:12 am by NIRMALSG

» Re: Financial reports Q1-2019
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyFri Jun 14, 2019 8:57 pm by dhanurrox

» SAMP.N0000 (SAMPATH BANK PLC)
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyFri Jun 14, 2019 8:11 am by puliyanam

» SEYB.N0000 ( SEYLAN BANK PLC )
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyThu Jun 13, 2019 8:11 pm by ruwan326

» NTB.N0000 (NATIONS TRUST BANK PLC)
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyThu Jun 13, 2019 8:08 pm by ruwan326

» PABC.N0000 (Pan Asia Banking Corporation PLC)
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyThu Jun 13, 2019 8:06 pm by ruwan326

» NDB.N0000 (NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANK PLC)
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyThu Jun 13, 2019 7:58 pm by ruwan326

» HNB.N0000 ( Hatton National Bank PLC)
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyThu Jun 13, 2019 7:57 pm by ruwan326

» HDFC.N0000 (HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION BANK OF SRI LANKA)
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyThu Jun 13, 2019 7:48 pm by ruwan326

» DFCC.N0000 ( DFCC BANK PLC )
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyThu Jun 13, 2019 7:45 pm by ruwan326

» COMB.N0000 ( COMMERCIAL BANK OF CEYLON PLC )
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyThu Jun 13, 2019 7:43 pm by ruwan326

» මිල සූත්‍රය වැරදුණාද, වැරැද්දුවාද?
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyThu Jun 13, 2019 9:21 am by ruwan326

» අනං මනං! #/+?.<>
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyThu Jun 13, 2019 8:07 am by ruwan326

» Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyWed Jun 12, 2019 5:21 pm by Yin-Yang

» CCS.N0000 ( Ceylon Cold Stores)
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyTue Jun 11, 2019 9:15 pm by ruwan326

» Access Engineering AEL Technical Analysis
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyTue Jun 11, 2019 9:10 am by Jimmy

» DOCK.N0000 (COLOMBO DOCKYARD PLC)
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyMon Jun 10, 2019 11:13 pm by hammurabi

» MCPL.N0000
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptySun Jun 09, 2019 12:15 pm by ruwan326

» Tourism sector
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptySun Jun 09, 2019 6:53 am by NIRMALSG

» LOFC Initiating Coverage - STRONG BUY - 29 03 17 - FC Research
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyFri Jun 07, 2019 5:42 am by stockback

» Easter Sunday Attack and Sri Lanka
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyThu Jun 06, 2019 9:13 am by ruwan326

» In the Meantime, Within Our Shores !
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyMon Jun 03, 2019 2:14 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» What to Analyse
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptySun Jun 02, 2019 7:11 am by Leon

» Tolerance at its Best !
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyThu May 30, 2019 10:50 am by Yin-Yang

» විශ‍්‍රාම ගැන්වීමේ වයස් සීමාව ඉහළ දැමීමට මහ බැංකුවෙන් යෝජනාවක්
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyTue May 28, 2019 8:03 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» සදහම් අටුවාව
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyTue May 28, 2019 7:07 am by ruwan326

» TPL.N0000 (TALAWAKALE PLANTATIONS )
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyMon May 27, 2019 8:04 am by yellow knife

» බැරි වෙලා වත් අනික් පැත්ත උනොත්...?
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyFri May 24, 2019 3:42 pm by smallville

» Sri Lanka at Cross Roads: Time to Learn, Unlearn and Relearn - Prof Rohan Gunaratna
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyFri May 24, 2019 3:10 pm by puliyanam

» Songs to listen
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyFri May 24, 2019 11:26 am by yellow knife

» Dhammika Perera non-committal on common candidate speculation
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyThu May 23, 2019 2:54 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Films - To Watch List
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyWed May 22, 2019 10:04 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Japan, India in Deal at ‘Belt And Road’ Colombo Port: Nikkei
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyTue May 21, 2019 2:06 pm by Ethical Trader

» Presidential poll between 15 Nov-7 Dec
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyTue May 21, 2019 11:31 am by bjmd

» Flying is the Safest mode of Transport
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyTue May 21, 2019 7:07 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» My Port Folio Bleeding But Its just the Begining Of..
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptySat May 18, 2019 7:40 pm by serene

» Sri Lanka mulls 25-pct ownership limit in finance companies
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyFri May 17, 2019 3:40 pm by Backstage

» Searing Heat in China Is Causing Havoc for Rubber Makers
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyFri May 17, 2019 2:43 pm by Backstage

» Israeli spyware breached WhatsApp security
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyWed May 15, 2019 7:47 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Is Burka prohibted ?
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyWed May 15, 2019 7:30 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Thread for General News Local/Foreign
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyTue May 14, 2019 11:49 am by CK

» Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyFri May 10, 2019 7:15 pm by Backstage

» NEST.N0000
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyThu May 09, 2019 7:54 pm by ruwan326

» Sweden-based Tundra Fund says Colombo bourse at lowest levels since 2009
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyWed May 08, 2019 5:43 pm by serene

» Telenor and Dialog Axiata's parent in talks to merge Asian businesses
Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? EmptyMon May 06, 2019 1:50 pm by Backstage

June 2019
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
      1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
30      

Calendar Calendar

Disclaimer


Information posted in this forum are entirely of the respective members' personal views. The views posted on this open online forum of contributors do not constitute a recommendation buy or sell. The site nor the connected parties will be responsible for the posts posted on the forum and will take best possible action to remove any unlawful or inappropriate posts.
All rights to articles of value authored by members posted on the forum belong to the respective authors. Re-using without the consent of the authors is prohibited. Due credit with links to original source should be given when quoting content from the forum.
This is an educational portal and not one that gives recommendations. Please obtain investment advises from a Registered Investment Advisor through a stock broker

Are We In A Bull or Bear Market?

Go down

Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? Empty Are We In A Bull or Bear Market?

Post by nihal123 on Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:21 pm

Don't Predict: It Will Bias Buy/Sell Decisions


Are We In A Bull or Bear Market?

By Dr. Winton Felt


People often ask and pundits often debate the question: "Are we in a bull market that has just had a correction, or are we seeing the beginning of a new bear market?" People seem to debate such questions endlessly in the media and on Internet forums. Trying to predict the market is fun and can sometimes be satisfying to the ego. It is enjoyable to talk about such things at gatherings or around the water cooler. It gives a person a chance to look bright or knowledgeable. We all like to seem intelligent..

However, it is not intelligent for a trader to indulge in such activities. In fact, it is a big mistake for a serious trader to do so. Why? It entices the trader to develop a market bias. That is not all that it does. When the trader expresses an opinion to others, the trader then has a vested interest in that opinion being right. It reflects on his intelligence and expertise as a trader. That bias can influence decisions about buying or selling. When a position deteriorates, the trader might be more inclined to "hold and hope" rather than sell. If his opinion had not been aired publicly, he might sell more quickly.

Our own traders know that the most consistently profitable traders are those who have learned to live in the present. The trader should be focusing on "what is" rather than what he or she thinks "ought to be." Market conditions are constantly changing. A trader's perspective on a stock can change dramatically in a matter of minutes or even seconds. The trader can be more nimble with a mind that is flexible and free from the shackles of ego-satisfying pronouncements.

Let's assume that the market has just had a sharp decline and that we conclude it is a bull market correction rather than a new bear market. The opinion that the decline is only a bull market correction has nothing to do with how we trade. We do not invest with the notion that the market is about to rise because we believe it is, after all, a bull market. Instead, we focus on what the primary trend is right now. For us, the primary trend is currently down, and it will remain down until it becomes flat or until it is no longer down, and it will remain in that condition until it changes again. The primary trend is the trend that is most important to your investment time-horizon for a particular investment. For example, if you are looking to capture the gain a stock makes in a week, then the fact that its 200-day moving average is declining may not be particularly important to you. However, a declining 20-day average could be very important. If the 200-day average is declining but the 20-day average is rising, then you might buy a stock that gaps above the upper boundary of a trading range on a 100% increase in volume. If you are looking for a gain of 5% or more in a week or two, the fact that the 200-day average is in decline may be irrelevant to you. On the other hand, for a long-term holder a rising 200-day average could be very important. That person might consider it irrelevant that the 10-day average is declining.

Our own stockdisciplines.com traders tend to use the 50-day moving average as an indicator of the general direction of the market. Within the context of that direction, there may be counter-currents. For example, we may have a declining 50-day average but a 20-day average that has started to rise. If the position we are considering is likely to be closed out in a week, then we may decide that the current trend is on our side. What we believe about the ultimate direction of the market is not important, nor is it relevant to what we do. What the market is doing right now with regard to the investment time-horizon for the stock under consideration is very important. Always invest with regard to the current context. Crystal balls are cloudy, sometimes deceptive, and always irrelevant when planning a trade.

Get more on this, and see a list of tutorials on disciplines for investors and traders.

http://www.stockdisciplines.com/bull-bear-market
nihal123
nihal123
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5551
Join date : 2014-02-24
Age : 53
Location : Waga

Back to top Go down

Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? Empty Re: Are We In A Bull or Bear Market?

Post by CK on Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:32 am

Thank you nihal. Good reading about trading and also ego.
CK
CK
Active Member
Active Member

Posts : 1326
Join date : 2015-11-01

Back to top Go down

Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? Empty Re: Are We In A Bull or Bear Market?

Post by Yin-Yang on Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:22 pm

There are two sides guys.

It has always been a strong believer of one thing who would make extraordinary gains.

++++++++

On the other hand; it is the same with extra ordinary losers also.
Yin-Yang
Yin-Yang

Posts : 1233
Join date : 2016-03-12

Back to top Go down

Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? Empty Re: Are We In A Bull or Bear Market?

Post by pjrngroup on Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:10 pm

Thanks Nihal.

pjrngroup

Posts : 344
Join date : 2015-11-01

Back to top Go down

Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? Empty Re: Are We In A Bull or Bear Market?

Post by CK on Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:18 pm

Yin-Yang wrote:There are two sides guys.

It has always been a strong believer of one thing who would make extraordinary gains.

++++++++

On the other hand; it is the same with extra ordinary losers also.
True
CK
CK
Active Member
Active Member

Posts : 1326
Join date : 2015-11-01

Back to top Go down

Are We In A Bull or Bear Market? Empty Re: Are We In A Bull or Bear Market?

Post by Ethical Trader on Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:29 pm

Thanks Nihal.
Ethical Trader
Ethical Trader
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5255
Join date : 2014-02-28

Back to top Go down

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum