The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans
Search
 
 

Display results as :
 


Rechercher Advanced Search

Latest topics
» Enterprise Sri Lanka to give extra credit support for women, disabled soldiers
Yesterday at 8:42 pm by sashimaal

» Quick Checklist for Selecting a Stock
Sat Jun 23, 2018 1:04 pm by spw19721

» HUNA.N0000
Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:42 am by pjrngroup

» Hello and CSE ?
Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:32 am by pjrngroup

» 2018 මැයි මස උද්ධමනය සියයට 2.1 ක් දක්වා ඉහළට
Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:31 am by Ethical Trader

» Laughter the Best Medicine
Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:11 pm by nihal123

» Sri Lanka is recovering, Central Bank threat looms: Bellwether
Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:20 am by The Invisible

» Sri Lanka's new forex law gets IMF thumps up
Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:16 am by The Invisible

» EU slaps tariffs on US as trade war erupts
Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:14 am by The Invisible

» Top monk asks Sri Lanka’s ex-defence chief to return as ‘Hitler’
Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:12 am by The Invisible

» May inflation at 2.1%
Fri Jun 22, 2018 2:06 am by sashimaal

»  මෙරට විශාලම ආයෝජනය වන හම්බන්තොට වරායේ අවසන් ආයෝජන මුදල වරාය අතට බාර දෙයි
Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:59 pm by Ethical Trader

» CCS.N0000 ( Ceylon Cold Stores)
Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:56 pm by Ethical Trader

» HHL.N0000 ( Hemas Holdings PLC)
Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:48 pm by Ethical Trader

» රුපියල තවදුරටත් පාවීමට ඉඩහැරිය යුතුයි - ජාත්‍යන්තර මූල්‍ය අරමුදල
Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:46 am by serene

» රජයේ සුරැකුම්වලින් රුපියල් බිලියන 2.7 ක විදෙස් ආයෝජන සතියක් තුළ දී ඉවතට
Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:11 am by serene

» ඩොලර් බිලියන 10 යි – මහ බැංකුව ඉතිහාසයේ වැඩිම විදේශ විනිමය සංචිතය ගොඩනගයි
Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:23 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» මාස 02 කදී කොටස් වෙළෙඳපොළ සියයට 4 කින් කඩා වැටිලා
Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:31 pm by serene

» කිම් - ට්‍රම්ප් හමුව: දෙරටේ නායකයෝ සාකච්ඡා අරඹති
Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:55 am by Ethical Trader

» DOCK.N0000 (COLOMBO DOCKYARD PLC)
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:20 am by spw19721

» TPL.N0000 (TALAWAKALE PLANTATIONS )
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:17 am by lanka

» සපත්තු පෙට්ටියකින් හමු වූ චීන මල් බඳුන පවුම් මිලියන 14 අලෙවි වේ
Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:03 pm by Ethical Trader

» Dividend Announcement
Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:49 am by Ethical Trader

» LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)
Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:47 am by Ethical Trader

» ලංකාවේ ඉපිද, බ්‍රිතාන්‍යයේ නගරාධිපති පදවියකට පත් වූ කරීමා
Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:19 pm by Ethical Trader

» KGAL.N0000 (Kegalle Plantation PLC)
Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:40 pm by Ethical Trader

» Where in the world is it easiest to get rich?
Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:53 am by CK

» "එළ හරකා - මී හරකා ආර්ථික ප්‍රතිපත්ති" සහ ඩොලරයට සාපේක්ෂව පහළ වැටෙන රුපියල
Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:07 am by Ethical Trader

» Top 20 magnificient eyes from around the world
Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:10 am by Ethical Trader

» ගෝඨාභය නඩු: උපරිමාධිකරණ විනිසුරුවරුන් දෙදෙනෙක් ඉවත්වෙති
Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:16 pm by sashimaal

» මුහුදු පතුලේ තැන්පත් කළ දත්ත ගබඩාව "යථාර්ථයක් විය හැකි විකාර අදහසක්"
Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:00 pm by Ethical Trader

» KFP.N0000(Keels Food Products PLC)
Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:54 am by lanka

» Sri Lanka Port Authority profits up after China takeover of Hambantota
Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:58 pm by Ethical Trader

» Tax hike to trim profits of Sri Lankan life insurers: Fitch
Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:55 pm by Ethical Trader

» Rupee weakens, stocks gain 0.23-pct
Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:54 pm by Ethical Trader

» ශ්‍රී ලංකාවේ 'අධිකරණයට අපහාස කිරීම' ගැන දැන සිටිය යුතු නීති පසුබිම
Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:50 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Sri Lanka finance ministry accounts qualified by Auditor General
Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:28 pm by Ethical Trader

» IFC invests US$2.5mn in Sri Lanka's PickMe
Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:22 pm by Ethical Trader

» Sri Lanka state banks most in need capital for Basel III, new risk identified
Tue Jun 05, 2018 1:21 pm by Ethical Trader

» Sri Lanka's ETI Finance able to settle small depositors if liquidated
Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:53 pm by The Invisible

» Oil steady as extra U.S. supply balances strong demand
Mon Jun 04, 2018 3:59 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» In the Meantime, Within Our Shores !
Mon Jun 04, 2018 3:32 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Cartoon of the day...
Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:47 am by nihal123

» SPEN.N0000
Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:19 pm by Ethical Trader

» තායිලන්තයෙන් අභ්‍යවකාශයට යන 'දූරියන්'
Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:18 pm by Ethical Trader

» නාසා අභ්‍යවකාශ යානයක් ප්ලූටෝ මත මීතේන් අයිස් වැටි සොයාගනී
Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:12 pm by Ethical Trader

» ඉන්දියාව ඉදිරියේ ශ්‍රී ලංකාව බලවත් වෙයි
Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:20 pm by sashimaal

» බන කියන පුංචි දරැවා
Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:21 am by Ethical Trader

» දරුවෙක් බේරාගත් මාලි ජාතික 'ස්පයිඩර් මෑන්'ට ප්‍රංශ පුරවැසිභාවය
Thu May 31, 2018 5:00 pm by Yin-Yang

» Exclusive: Cricket match-fixers caught in the act in Sri Lanka
Mon May 28, 2018 7:41 pm by sashimaal

June 2018
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
     12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930

Calendar Calendar

Disclaimer


Information posted in this forum are entirely of the respective members' personal views. The views posted on this open online forum of contributors do not constitute a recommendation buy or sell. The site nor the connected parties will be responsible for the posts posted on the forum and will take best possible action to remove any unlawful or inappropriate posts.
All rights to articles of value authored by members posted on the forum belong to the respective authors. Re-using without the consent of the authors is prohibited. Due credit with links to original source should be given when quoting content from the forum.
This is an educational portal and not one that gives recommendations. Please obtain investment advises from a Registered Investment Advisor through a stock broker

Research house projects gloomy outlook for economy

Go down

Research house projects gloomy outlook for economy

Post by Backstage on Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:48 am

Research house projects gloomy outlook for economy
2017-01-31

An independent research house has projected a gloomy outlook for Sri Lanka this year with the economy just growing a mere 3.9 percent amid slowing consumer spending, a depreciating rupee and an expanding budget deficit, though private sector credit is likely to ease.
According to CAL Research, part of Capital Alliance Group, the fiscal tightening measures will hurt the consumer demand, which hitherto helped propel the Lankan economy.
However, this is a much conservative estimate compared to what the country’s Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have already projected.
The IMF, in December, slashed its growth forecast on Sri Lanka to 4.8 percent for 2017 from its earlier forecast of 5.0 percent. The Central Bank however has taken a more optimistic view on the economy, forecasting a 5-5.6 percent growth though not overlooking the significant downside risks.
“Sri Lanka’s GDP growth for 2017E is expected to fall to 3.9 percent, from our 2016E of c. 5 percent (excluding FDI),” CAL Research said in its latest macro outlook titled ‘Infrastructure growth to counter fall in consumption’.
However, CAL Research said lower growth would be propelled to a certain extent by the infrastructure growth mainly funded by foreign direct investments as consumption is likely to weaken and will become less of a growth driver.
Interestingly, the tightened money conditions in 2016 and the lower disposable incomes due to higher taxes did little to slowdown consumer demand. This is aptly demonstrated through the country’s consumer retailers posting strong financial results supported by higher revenues.
Meanwhile, CAL Research said the rupee would plunge to 163 against the US dollar and the inflation would accelerate. The research house expects a more market-oriented level for the rupee in 2017, primarily due to the pressure on reserves.
Commenting on the price pressure, CAL Research estimates urban prices to rise up to 8.4 percent by the end of the year as the oil bill is expected to rise at lease by US $ 230 million due to higher thermal power generation.

“CAL expects higher thermal oil use for power generation in 2017, which may result in the total oil bill increasing by US $ 230 million. CAL expects crude oil to average US $ 55/bbl, while the total cost for Sri Lanka is expected to top US $ 70/bbl,” CAL said.
Under these circumstances, the budget deficit is expected to expand between 7.9-9.0 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), overshooting the government’s deficit target of 4.6 percent for 2017.
However, CAL Research holds a more dovish outlook for private sector credit of around 11 percent in 2017.
“Due to an increase in indirect taxes and a 4 percent LKR depreciation towards the end of 2016, CAL expects private sector credit growth to fall to 11.2 percent in 2017E from 19.5 percent in 2016E.
This demonstrates CAL Research’s expectation of higher interest rates for longer period.
Sri Lanka’s economy was seen drifting during the last two years with no major progress being made as policy and political uncertainties weighed on the economy.
avatar
Backstage
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 3270
Join date : 2014-02-24

Back to top Go down

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum