Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter

[First Guy]

This is based on Dec quarter numbers (including the ratios) and only FYI. Click on the pic to see trailing 12 month analysis.

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Please do your own research before making your investment decision.

[pathfinderTop contributor]

Thanks FG

[chutiputhaTop contributor]

Seems PAP is Ok @ Current

[sashimaalTop contributor]

Thanks FG.

Annualized PE based on current qtr may be a bit too risky for Companies such as HPFL, as it had just one good qtr and that is this qtr.
Maybe this is the turning point...bit risky (of course may lead to high gain for some who wants to take the risk).

[NuinthTop contributor]

Thx FG, very useful, +.

[First Guy]

Thanks FG.

Annualized PE based on current qtr may be a bit too risky for Companies such as HPFL, as it had just one good qtr and that is this qtr.
Maybe this is the turning point...bit risky (of course may lead to high gain for some who wants to take the risk).

True. But but I feel more can be expected of it in coming quarters. Click the pic to take you to the financials snapshot to see the trends in all these companies. Interesting that QoQ VPEL revenues and profit have dipped. All of these counters have unique points.

VPEL - strong dividend
VLL - adding capacity/buying stakes in other companies (PAP) etc., and starting to pay some good dividend
HPFL - just getting started and more to come perhaps
PAP - rather steady earnings compared to others.

Take March 2014 where most reported losses except PAP. Although Mar 2015 may not be the same, I expect some dip in earnings for Hydros this quarter QoQ.

[Karan]

HPFL more better for buy

[sashimaalTop contributor]

Yes thanks, +

Thanks FG.

Annualized PE based on current qtr may be a bit too risky for Companies such as HPFL, as it had just one good qtr and that is this qtr.
Maybe this is the turning point...bit risky (of course may lead to high gain for some who wants to take the risk).

True. But but I feel more can be expected of it in coming quarters. Click the pic to take you to the financials snapshot to see the trends in all these companies. Interesting that QoQ VPEL revenues and profit have dipped. All of these counters have unique points.

VPEL - strong dividend
VLL - adding capacity/buying stakes in other companies (PAP) etc., and starting to pay some good dividend
HPFL - just getting started and more to come perhaps
PAP - rather steady earnings compared to others.

Take March 2014 where most reported losses except PAP. Although Mar 2015 may not be the same, I expect some dip in earnings for Hydros this quarter QoQ.

[chinwiTop contributor]

Thanks.

My predictions about Hydro Power companies:

Trading prices in 12-15  months: Max to Min

HPWR > HPFL > VPEL > VLL > PAP


Note: Do not act based on this . Before my 12-15 month range many things can happen. You have to follow trends and trade but keep in mind the end products. Two 'H's should give max returns in long term.
HPWR has reported losses due to the reasons we all know   and it may create good opportunity to collect at bargain prices in next few moths.  The other H has connected new generator to the grid in last April and I hope they will connect the other one, their best motor, this year. After that I hope to get divorced from H and marry the other H.

 I like to use fundamentals like details as I go for  long term .
No threat to locally produced hydropower in next few years because of the  devaluation of our Rupee. I feel we may see 150/-  US$ in 15-20 months if no strong external support gained.

[slstockVeteran]

+rep.

HPWR ,
see below
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[BackstageTop contributor]

I see two variables in this sector that are risky. 1. The weather patterns .2. Tariff changes.
If not for that, I would have thrown the kitchen sink into VPEL.

[First Guy]

I see two variables in this sector that are risky. 1. The weather patterns .2. Tariff changes.
If not for that, I would have thrown the kitchen sink into VPEL.

Tariff changes - not much info on that with me.

But as for weather pattern changes, I feel at least one or two quarter there will be good production due to good rainfall which is adequate to provide good earnings. With increased capacity from few companies, this should also be negated. But we have to look at the seasonality and average it out. For example, Dec 2014 results alone should not be taken for decision making. Check  March 2014 quarter which was the worst in recent quarters. I guess we can expect reduced earnings in March 2015 as well but maybe not losses. (If we look only at one quarter people will end up giving target price like 200/- for a certain stock like one joker)

VPEL EPS reduced from 0.50/- to 0.37/- QoQ while the others improved. But VPEL is hot specially due to the large dividends at the moment.

disc: holding VPEL and small qty of HPFL

[chinwiTop contributor]

So far, 2015 Jan - Feb precipitation was not bad as 2014 same period.
Hence we can expect moderate or not-bad earnings for next qtr also. Then, APR-JUN is normally wet .
For HPFL they have Stellenberg this time which was not their during 2014 Jan-Mar.

We should know why VPEL under-performed while others grow QoQ. May be due to the locations of their pomphouses. Last year also it happened same way. JUL-SEP was better than OCT-DEC for VPEL.

[sereneTop contributor]

Thanks FG very Useful.

[DocStockTop contributor]

This is neat. Thanks FG!

[poor boyActive Member]

good table very useful.

in this sector hpwr still reporting losses.

[chutiputhaTop contributor]

Dealings with VLL

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This is based on Dec quarter numbers (including the ratios) and only FYI. Click on the pic to see trailing 12 month analysis.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Please do your own research before making your investment decision.

[Crystal2008]

i bought some VLL shares and holding for almost 1 year.
I bought this share at that time, because it was trading its lowest price and always saw director buying at least 2-3 times per month. So i thought, there would be some future potential for this share
Later, I did not sell even i saw few times, share went to 6.00 - 6.30 range.
I saw their earnings are growing for time to time
Their yearly EPS was .34 in 2014 and for this year it's .75 already for 3Q, That is earnings increase of more than 100%
Currently i'm happy with my 78% unrealized profit
Currently Share is trading in large volumes for last few weeks even before releasing their Dec accounts
After releasing Dec accounts, and considering their growth, i feel this share worth 7.00 - 7.50 range. I doubt that do i wait little bit more time to sell it
Hope to hear others opinion

[slstockVeteran]

Welcome. Glad to hear your success.

I usuallu don't like to tell people directlu to buy/sell/hold.

But I think this may not be the time to sell this. Watch carefully and if there is a negative development you can dispose and take profit.

i bought some VLL shares and holding for almost 1 year.
I bought this share at that time, because it was trading its lowest price and always saw director buying at least 2-3 times per month. So i thought, there would be some future potential for this share
Later, I did not sell even i saw few times, share went to 6.00 - 6.30 range.
I saw their earnings are growing for time to time
Their yearly EPS was .34 in 2014 and for this year it's .75 already for 3Q, That is earnings increase of more than 100%
Currently i'm happy with my 78% unrealized profit
Currently Share is trading in large volumes for last few weeks even before releasing their Dec accounts
After releasing Dec accounts, and considering their growth, i feel this share worth 7.00 - 7.50 range. I doubt that do i wait little bit more time to sell it
Hope to hear others opinion

[baller]

Woah. What is happening with HPFL?

[poor boyActive Member]

did a quick day trading on hpfl . good day.

[baller]

Sell or hold? Any ideas? Thanks in advance

[chinwiTop contributor]

My predictions about Hydro Power companies:

Trading prices in 12-15  months: Max to Min

HPWR > HPFL > VPEL > VLL > PAP

Time travelling ? or is it happening too early than I thought ?

Go ... HP go....  just 20 cents to beat VP !

[Karan]

What about MFL today .40 cents up and trading 7.00

[HAL9000Top contributor]

Last quarter we had unusually high rainfalls. So exceptional profits for many hydros so does the run. I think this sector we should enter and exit timely, During dry period price will plummet to bottom
l sold my VPEL and HPFL