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» පාකිස්තාන සංචාරය: "මම නම් යන්නේ නෑ"
Yesterday at 12:05 pm by Ethical Trader

» "මිනී මස් කාල එපා වෙලා"
Tue Aug 22, 2017 5:55 pm by Ethical Trader

» ලොව වැඩි වශයෙන්ම ප්‍රතිනිර්මාණය වූ කලා කෘතිය
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» විජයදාස ඉවත් කරන්න: එජාපය ජනපතිට කියයි
Tue Aug 22, 2017 3:09 pm by Ethical Trader

» ජනාධිපතිවරණය දිනා ශ්‍රී ලංකාවේ ණය එක දවසකින් ගෙවන සුපිරි කෝටීපතියා .!
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» ආදායම ලක්ෂ 12 ට අඩුනම් ආදායම් බදු නැහැ – මුදල් ඇමති කියයි
Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:30 pm by nihal123

» වැසිකිළියක් සදා නොදුන් සැමියාගෙන් දික්කසාද වීමට අධිකරණය අවසර දෙයි
Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:31 pm by Ethical Trader

» 2017 ජන්ද හිමි නාමලේඛනයේ කෙටුම්පත පිටවෙයි
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» වාහන බදු අඩු කළායින් පසු සමාගම් කොටස් මිල ඉහළ ගිය හැටි
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» CB Chief cracks whip!
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» ක්‍රිකට්: ශ්‍රී ලංකා කණ්ඩායමට එරෙහිව ක්‍රීඩාලෝලීන්ගේ විරෝධතාවක්
Mon Aug 21, 2017 10:55 am by Ethical Trader

» "විගණන පනත යට ගහන බවට ඇමතිවරුන්ට චෝදනා"
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» Male-Penned Songs On Women By Madani
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Sun Aug 20, 2017 10:30 am by Ethical Trader

» Sri Lanka introduces concessions to boost faltering growth
Sat Aug 19, 2017 7:05 pm by Backstage

» New taxes hamper life insurance industry
Sat Aug 19, 2017 7:03 pm by Backstage

» Carrom Game between Chamil Cooray & Sandeep Deorukhkar in ICF Cup 2015
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» LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)
Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:28 am by Ethical Trader

» EPF/ETF සහ විදේශ ශ්‍රමිකයෝ: නව බදු පනත ගැන මේ කරුණු දන්නවාද?
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» ගෙවල්..වාහන..විදුලිය..සියල්ලටම දැන් ණය වර්ග අටක්..
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» විදුලි සංදේශ බද්ද ඉවතට - යතුරුපැදි බදු අඩුවෙයි
Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:09 pm by nihal123

» දෙවන කාර්තුවේ ඉහළ වර්ධනය සමඟින් කොමර්ෂල් බැංකුව තවත් ශක්තිමත් වෙයි
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» අද වෙන්දේසියේ දී බිල්පත් පොළී නගී
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» ලක්‍ෂ්මන් සිල්වා DFCC බැංකුවේ ප‍්‍රධාන විධායක නිලධාරි තනතුරට
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» HOPL.N0000 ( Horana Plantations PLC)
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» පෑන් ඒෂියා බැංකුවේ ප්‍රාථමික අලෙවි කටයුතු මාස 06 කට අත්හිටුවයි
Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:16 pm by nihal123

» LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)
Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:37 pm by The Invisible

» Plantation sector updates
Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:51 pm by The Invisible

» අධිකරණ ඇමතිට ආණ්ඩු පක්ෂයෙන්ම විශ්වාස භංගයක්?
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» සොහොන් කොතේ නම 'අකැප' ඇෆ්ගන් කතුන්
Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:59 pm by Ethical Trader

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Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:42 pm by Ethical Trader

» TJL.N0000 (Textured Jersey Lanka PLC.)
Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:10 pm by Ethical Trader

» කොරියාවේ උණුසුමට සංගීතයේ සිසිලස
Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:10 am by Ethical Trader

» මැක්‍රෝන් සිය බිරිඳට 'ජනාධිපති ආර්යා' නිල තත්වය නොදෙන ළකුණු
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» Video of the day...
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» Cartoon of the day...
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» LWL.N0000 (Lanka Walltiles PLC)
Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:25 am by pjrngroup

» RICH N.0000 Richard Pieris and company PLC
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» විසිපන්දහසේ දඩය අනුමතයි - දඩ මුදල වැඩි කෙරුණු රථවාහන වැරදි මෙන්න
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» ජනපති අගමැති ඇතුළු "සම්මුති ආණ්ඩුව වෙනුවෙන්" රවී ඇමති පුටුව අතහරි...
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Goldman Overweights Commodities for First Time in Four Years

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Goldman Overweights Commodities for First Time in Four Years

Post by Backstage on Tue Nov 22, 2016 10:30 am


Goldman Overweights Commodities for First Time in Four Years
Jesse Riseborough
and Javier Blas
November 21, 2016

Commodities are entering ‘cyclically stronger environment’
Bank raises iron ore forecasts, cuts gold-price estimates

The Trump Effect: Make Metals Great Again?

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said investors should bet on higher commodities prices in the next year as manufacturing picks up around the world, the first time the bank has recommended an overweight position for the asset class in more than four years.

Purchasing managers’ indexes strengthened in all major regions in October, helping to spur gains in iron ore, copper and other base metals. Goldman raised its iron ore price forecasts, citing an unexpected resilience in steel usage and a demand boost coming from broad restocking, as well as its oil price estimates into next year.

“The recent re-acceleration in global PMIs suggests commodity markets are entering a cyclically stronger environment,” Goldman analysts led by Jeff Currie wrote in a report e-mailed Monday. “Supply restrictions from policy actions should benefit oil, coking coal and nickel in the near term while economic reductions should boost natural gas and zinc.”

Goldman Sachs is the biggest commodities dealer on Wall Street by sales and for that reason the views of its analysts carry extra weight among natural resources investors.

The bank raised its outlook for returns on the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Enhanced commodity index to 9 percent on a three-month basis, compared with a previous expectation for a decline of 2 percent. It also forecasts returns of 11 percent and 6 percent on a six-month and 12-month basis, respectively.

Industrial metals have rallied 14 percent in London in the past month on expectations that the economy in top user China is stabilizing and a Donald Trump presidency in the U.S. will bolster demand. Credit-fueled stimulus in China this year has been the primary driver of recent gains, rather than speculation surrounding the size of Trump’s infrastructure-investment plan, Goldman said.

“It is tempting to blame the sharp post-election rally in industrial metals prices on President-elect Trump’s platform of lower taxation and higher public spending on infrastructure,” the analysts said. “We would argue this rally was a continuation of a reflation trend put in place at the start of 2016 by the Chinese through credit stimulus aimed at infrastructure projects and policy driven supply curtailments in coal.”

Goldman also raised its forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude-oil prices to $55 a barrel in both the first and second quarters of next year, compared with $46.63 now. It sees iron ore at $65 a dry ton in three months, and $63 and $55 in six and 12 months, respectively. The material traded at $70.34 today.

The bank cut its gold outlook to $1,200 an ounce on both a three- and six-month outlook. Prices slumped 5 percent in the past two weeks to $1,215.59 as the market sees a U.S. interest-rate increase next month as a near-certainty.
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