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» Laughter the Best Medicine
Yesterday at 5:03 pm by Ethical Trader

» සිව් හෙලයේ ඉතිහාසය නිවැරදි කිරීම
Yesterday at 1:03 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Dividend Announcement
Yesterday at 11:47 am by Rana

» ප්‍රගීත් එක්නැලිගොඩ: "ෆයිල් අතුරුදහන්වීම" ගැන සන්ධ්‍යා හමුදාපතිට කිවූ දේ
Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:13 pm by Ethical Trader

» China offers best chance for SL development: CB
Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:27 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

»  බැඳුම්කර වාර්තාව
Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:58 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» "මිසයිල් අනතුරු ඇඟවීම වැරදි බොත්තමක් එබීමෙන්"
Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 pm by nihal123

» ඉන්දියාවේ ශ්‍රේෂ්ඨාධිකරණ විනිසුරුවෝ අගවිනිසුරුට එරෙහිව ප්‍රවෘත්ති සාකච්ඡාවක
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:06 pm by Ethical Trader

» එක්කෝටි විසි ලක්ෂයකට අධික ළදරු කිරිපිටි ඇසුරුම් ආපසු කැඳවයි
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:00 pm by Ethical Trader

» ට්‍රම්ප්ගේ "ජාතිවාදී" භාෂාව ගැන කෝපය පළ වේ
Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:32 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» විශ්මිත නිර්මාණ එළිදැක්වූ ලෝකයේ විශාලතම තාක්ෂණික ප්‍රදර්ශනය
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:12 pm by Ethical Trader

» CCTV මගින් රථවාහන දඩ: අත්හදා බැලීම පෙබරවාරියේ
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:00 am by Ethical Trader

» Six-year term for President Sirisena: AG tells Supreme Court
Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:11 pm by Ethical Trader

» US revamps travel warning system; SL gets an okay
Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:09 pm by Ethical Trader

» Term of a Dictator
Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:02 pm by Ethical Trader

» නියම බුදු දහම
Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:44 pm by Ethical Trader

» මන්ත්‍රී විමල්ට අධිචෝදනා පත්‍ර භාර දුන්නේ ඇයි?
Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:31 pm by Ethical Trader

» SEYB.N0000 ( SEYLAN BANK PLC )
Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:25 pm by Ethical Trader

» 2008 -2014 බැඳුම්කර නිකුතු ගැන මහින්ද ප්‍රකාශයක් සිදු කළ යුතුයි - රනිල්
Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:00 pm by yellow knife

» ලෝකයේ රටවල් දෙකක මහා දේශගුණික වෙනස
Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:58 pm by Ethical Trader

» ඉතිහාසයේ පළමු වරට කොටස් වෙළෙඳපොළෙන් ත්‍රිත්ව ශතකයක්
Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:45 pm by Ethical Trader

» RICH N.0000 Richard Pieris and company PLC
Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:14 pm by Ethical Trader

» බැඳුම්කරය: මහින්දගෙන් ප්‍රශ්න කරන්න ජනමාධ්‍ය බයද? - රනිල්
Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:58 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» ලංකාවේ සුපිරිම දුම්රිය ස්ථානය
Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:33 pm by spw19721

» බැඳුම්කර කොල්ලයේ හෙළි වූ හොරු මෙන්න
Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:07 am by Ethical Trader

» අගමැති නිදොස් යයි කීම "ස්වයංවින්දනයක්ද?"
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:51 am by Ethical Trader

» නව බදු : සෞදි බලධාරීන්ගෙන් තවත් පියවරක්
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:48 am by Ethical Trader

» දුප්පත්කමින් එතෙරවීමට ඉනිමං බඳින චීනය
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:45 am by Ethical Trader

» "නාන්න අවසර විනාඩි දෙකයි"
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:39 am by Ethical Trader

» බැඳුම්කර කොමිසමේ නිර්දේශ ක්‍රියාත්මක කරන්න - අගමැතිගෙන් උපදෙස්
Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:24 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» "Politically Black": බ්‍රිතාන්‍යයේ ජාතිවාදයට එරෙහිව සටන් වැදුණු ශ්‍රී ලාංකිකයා
Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:26 pm by Ethical Trader

» 'ෆයර් ඇන්ඩ් ෆියුරි' බොරුවෙන් පිරිලා - ට්‍රම්ප්
Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:22 pm by Ethical Trader

» සුනඛයෙකුට කළ ප්‍රතිකාරයකින් බිම් බෝම්වලට ගොදුරුවූවන්ට "නව බලාපොරොත්තුවක්"
Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:51 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» රවිට නඩු, රනිල්ට තරවටු, සියලු පාඩු අයකර ගැනීමට පියවර- ජනපති කියයි..
Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:24 pm by Ethical Trader

» බැඳුම්කර කොමිසමේ නිර්දේශ: "අගමැතිතුමා නිර්දෝෂී බව කොමිසම සනාථ කළා"
Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:27 pm by CK

» "බරපතල වංචා, දූෂණ" කොමිෂන් වාර්තාවත් ජනපතිට භාර දෙයි
Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:06 am by Ethical Trader

» Banking Sector Outlook-
Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:01 am by Ethical Trader

» දූෂණ පරීක්ෂණවලට තිරිංග දැම්මේ කවුද?
Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:37 pm by CK

» 2018 Calander
Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:07 am by Ethical Trader

» CSE Holidays - 2018
Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:03 am by Ethical Trader

» CB action taken on ailing finance companies.
Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:43 am by Ethical Trader

» World’s Most Toxic Food
Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:28 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Tempolten's 22 Principles for successful Investments.
Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:18 am by Ethical Trader

» සෞදි අරාබිය සහ එක්සත් අරාබි එමීරය පළමු වරට බදු හඳුන්වා දෙති
Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:14 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» ඉරානය- මරණ විසි ගණනක්; සිය ගණනක් අත්අඩංගුවේ
Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:12 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» ස්වර්ණමහල් සහ ඊටීඅයි ෆිනෑන්ස් සමාගම් මහ බැංකුවේ නියාමනයට
Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:10 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» යාචක තහනම: "යාචකයන්ට දිනකට රු 1,500ක රැකියා"
Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:10 pm by Ethical Trader

» Ouch !
Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:33 am by spw19721

» Flying is the Safest mode of Transport
Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:50 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» What would it be?
Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:04 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

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Goldman Overweights Commodities for First Time in Four Years

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Goldman Overweights Commodities for First Time in Four Years

Post by Backstage on Tue Nov 22, 2016 10:30 am


Goldman Overweights Commodities for First Time in Four Years
Jesse Riseborough
and Javier Blas
November 21, 2016

Commodities are entering ‘cyclically stronger environment’
Bank raises iron ore forecasts, cuts gold-price estimates

The Trump Effect: Make Metals Great Again?

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said investors should bet on higher commodities prices in the next year as manufacturing picks up around the world, the first time the bank has recommended an overweight position for the asset class in more than four years.

Purchasing managers’ indexes strengthened in all major regions in October, helping to spur gains in iron ore, copper and other base metals. Goldman raised its iron ore price forecasts, citing an unexpected resilience in steel usage and a demand boost coming from broad restocking, as well as its oil price estimates into next year.

“The recent re-acceleration in global PMIs suggests commodity markets are entering a cyclically stronger environment,” Goldman analysts led by Jeff Currie wrote in a report e-mailed Monday. “Supply restrictions from policy actions should benefit oil, coking coal and nickel in the near term while economic reductions should boost natural gas and zinc.”

Goldman Sachs is the biggest commodities dealer on Wall Street by sales and for that reason the views of its analysts carry extra weight among natural resources investors.

The bank raised its outlook for returns on the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Enhanced commodity index to 9 percent on a three-month basis, compared with a previous expectation for a decline of 2 percent. It also forecasts returns of 11 percent and 6 percent on a six-month and 12-month basis, respectively.

Industrial metals have rallied 14 percent in London in the past month on expectations that the economy in top user China is stabilizing and a Donald Trump presidency in the U.S. will bolster demand. Credit-fueled stimulus in China this year has been the primary driver of recent gains, rather than speculation surrounding the size of Trump’s infrastructure-investment plan, Goldman said.

“It is tempting to blame the sharp post-election rally in industrial metals prices on President-elect Trump’s platform of lower taxation and higher public spending on infrastructure,” the analysts said. “We would argue this rally was a continuation of a reflation trend put in place at the start of 2016 by the Chinese through credit stimulus aimed at infrastructure projects and policy driven supply curtailments in coal.”

Goldman also raised its forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude-oil prices to $55 a barrel in both the first and second quarters of next year, compared with $46.63 now. It sees iron ore at $65 a dry ton in three months, and $63 and $55 in six and 12 months, respectively. The material traded at $70.34 today.

The bank cut its gold outlook to $1,200 an ounce on both a three- and six-month outlook. Prices slumped 5 percent in the past two weeks to $1,215.59 as the market sees a U.S. interest-rate increase next month as a near-certainty.
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