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Do savers out perform investors at CSE

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Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by yellow knife on Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:00 am

Researchers come up with hypothesis. Hypothesis is not a conclusion. But it enable us to gather data for analysis.

Once Ying-Yang suggested me to sell my PF and save , and by that time I have done 50% of what he said.

What the caption of this thread may meaningless in a country with savings accounts interest below 1%.

But for us at Sri Lanka  its a worthy study.. Further long bear phases often show the merit of savings..

Madam CBK era was a long 12 odd year plateau for CSE and savings was the panacea...

Are we repeating the same foolish era or are we to see star studded 2017 as Shashimal often say...

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Re: Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by yellow knife on Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:04 am

My first example is data from a Minor savings account from Peoples Bank, branded as Sisu Udana.

Now I am rejected for the third time as message is too long... so I slice even than usual...



DateDepositaccumulatedInterestAccu IntBalanceAnnualised InterestGains over Savings
2-Dec-091,000.001,000.0000.001,000.00
31-Jan-100.001,000.005.095.091,005.096.110.51
9-Feb-101,000.002,000.004.629.712,009.715.540.48
1-Mar-101,000.003,000.0015.3325.043,025.046.130.83
30-Apr-100.003,000.0014.9139.953,039.955.961.31
31-May-100.003,000.0015.4955.443,055.446.201.81
30-Jun-100.003,000.0015.0670.503,070.506.022.30
31-Jul-100.003,000.0015.6486.143,086.146.262.79
27-Aug-101,000.004,000.0015.72101.864,101.864.722.48
30-Sep0.004,000.0020.22122.084,122.086.072.96
29-Oct-101,000.005,000.0021143.085,143.085.042.78
30-Nov-100.005,000.0025.36168.445,168.446.093.26
1-Dec-101,000.006,000.000168.446,168.440.002.73
30-Dec-106,000.0012,000.0031.43199.8712,199.873.141.64

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Re: Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by yellow knife on Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:04 am

Ok it worked so one year at a time..


26-Jan-111,000.0013,000.0062.16262.0313,262.035.741.98
28-Feb-110.0013,000.0061.04323.0713,323.075.632.42
29-Mar-112,000.0015,000.0067.89390.9615,390.965.432.54
29-Apr-111,000.0016,000.0075.9466.8616,466.865.692.84
30-May-111,000.0017,000.0083.91550.7717,550.775.923.14
30-Jun-111,000.0018,000.0086.55637.3218,637.325.773.42
5-Jul-111,000.0019,000.0089.87727.1919,727.195.683.69
4-Aug-111,000.0020,000.0095.43822.6220,822.625.733.95
27-Sep-111,000.0021,000.00102.68925.3021,925.305.874.22
31-Oct-111,000.0022,000.00111.721,037.0223,037.026.094.50
30-Nov-110.0022,000.00113.61,150.6223,150.626.204.97
29-Dec-112,000.0024,000.00117.971,268.5925,268.595.905.02

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Re: Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by yellow knife on Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:05 am

good to have data from the beginning



26-Jan-121,000.0025,000.00129.751,398.3426,398.346.235.30
29-Feb-120.0025,000.00125.841,524.1826,524.186.045.75
26-Mar-121,000.0026,000.00136.151,660.3327,660.336.286.00
26-Apr-121,000.0027,000.00137.221,797.5528,797.556.106.24
31-May-121,000.0028,000.00146.911,944.4629,944.466.306.49
26-Jun-121,000.0029,000.00148.492,092.9531,092.956.146.73
27-Jul-121,000.0030,000.00159.262,252.2132,252.216.376.98
31-Aug-121,000.0031,000.00164.352,416.5633,416.566.367.23
26-Sep-121,000.0032,000.00160.682,577.2434,577.246.037.45
30-Oct-121,000.0033,000.00171.432,748.6735,748.676.237.69
30-Nov-120.0033,000.00171.852,920.5235,920.526.258.13
31-Dec-121,000.0034,000.00184.363,104.8837,104.886.518.37

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Re: Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by yellow knife on Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:06 am

more years to reach 2016


29-Jan-131,000.0035,000.00189.573,294.4538,294.456.508.60
28-Feb-131,000.0036,000.00176.423,470.8739,470.875.888.79
28-Mar-131,000.0037,000.00201.793,672.6640,672.666.549.03
26-Apr-131,000.0038,000.00201.393,874.0541,874.056.369.25
31-May-130.0038,000.00213.384,087.4342,087.436.749.71
3-Jun-132,000.0040,000.00212.654,300.0844,300.086.389.71
26-Jul-131,000.0041,000.00226.734,526.8145,526.816.649.94
29-Aug-131,000.0042,000.00232.494,759.3046,759.306.6410.18
26-Sep-131,000.0043,000.00231.414,990.7147,990.716.4610.40
29-Oct-131,000.0044,000.00245.215,235.9249,235.926.6910.63
27-Nov-131,000.0045,000.00243.465,479.3850,479.386.4910.85
27-Dec-131,000.0046,000.00258.055,737.4351,737.436.7311.09

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Re: Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by yellow knife on Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:07 am

Now into 2014


31-Jan-140.0046,000.00263.646,001.0752,001.076.8811.54
28-Feb-140.0046,000.00239.346,240.4152,240.416.2411.95
28-Mar-141,000.0047,000.00266.866,507.2753,507.276.8112.16
29-Apr-141,000.0048,000.00264.26,771.4754,771.476.6112.36
26-May-141,000.0049,000.00280.097,051.5656,051.566.8612.58
30-Jun-140.0049,000.00276.417,327.9756,327.976.7713.01
30-Jul-141,000.0050,000.00287.367,615.3357,615.336.9013.22
31-Aug-140.0050,000.00293.67,908.9357,908.937.0513.66
30-Sep-141,000.0051,000.00285.748,194.6759,194.676.7213.84
27-Oct-141,000.0052,000.00302.478,497.1460,497.146.9814.05
28-Nov-141,000.0053,000.00298.838,795.9761,795.976.7714.23
24-Dec-141,000.0054,000.00316.229,112.1963,112.197.0314.44

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Re: Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by yellow knife on Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:08 am

annualized interest remains closer to 6 all the time but the gains for savings or total interest accumulated so far against the money saving is going up



26-Jan-151,000.0055,000.00322.599,434.7864,434.787.0414.64
26-Feb-151,000.0056,000.00297.069,731.8465,731.846.3714.81
31-Mar-150.0056,000.00334.9610,066.8066,066.807.1815.24
30-Apr-152,000.0058,000.00331.3910,398.1968,398.196.8615.20
22-May-151,000.0059,000.00349.3710,747.5669,747.567.1115.41
26-Jun-151,500.0060,500.00345.1911,092.7571,592.756.8515.49
29-Jul-151,000.0061,500.00365.3211,458.0772,958.077.1315.71
31-Aug-151,000.0062,500.00372.7711,830.8474,330.847.1615.92
28-Sep-151,000.0063,500.00367.0512,197.8975,697.896.9416.11
26-Oct-151,000.0064,500.00386.7312,584.6277,084.627.1916.33
26-Nov-151,000.0065,500.00380.9612,965.5878,465.586.9816.52
31-Dec-150.0065,500.00399.8513,365.4378,865.437.3316.95

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Re: Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by yellow knife on Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:09 am

The more the saver wait the more gains he get.


6-Jan-162,000.0067,500.00406.8213,772.2581,272.257.2316.95
28-Feb-161,000.0068,500.00388.0914,160.3482,660.346.8017.13
28-Mar-161,000.0069,500.00421.8814,582.2284,082.227.2817.34
26-Apr-161,000.0070,500.00415.4714,997.6985,497.697.0717.54
23-May-161,000.0071,500.00436.6715,434.3686,934.367.3317.75
27-Jun-161,000.0072,500.00429.3715,863.7388,363.737.1117.95
26-Jul-161,000.0073,500.00454.2916,318.0289,818.027.4218.17
26-Aug-161,000.0074,500.00455.6516,773.6791,273.677.3418.38

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Re: Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by Future123 on Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:13 am

When Yahapalanaya came to power, we should have sold our stocks and converted to US$ or put in a FD. We could have got much more than losing.


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Re: Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by yellow knife on Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:20 am

So what does above say so far

1. Savings can be done in small amounts as above in just Rs 1,000.00 per month and even there were enough hi-cups in between.

2. When Rs 74,500 is saved you get Rs 16,773.67  as interest...which is 22% unrealized gain in investors language.

If we add already accumulated interest the the total return is 18.38%

3.The more you wait the more gain you get.






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Re: Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by Backstage on Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:20 pm

I accidentally gave future321 a like. Sorry.Embarassed
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Re: Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by yellow knife on Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:17 pm

Now with effect from April 2016 a WHT of 2.5% is applicable on interest of savings...

This is from a savings account of PLC.N..
So the saver get around 7% compounding interest..

Next I will evaluate NSB minor savings...


DateInterestTAX deductAnnualised Interest rateBalance
30-Jun-1610,097.17252.437.611,598,336.01
31-Jul-1610,520.47263.017.881,608,593.47
31-Aug-1610,588.05264.707.881,618,916.82
30-Sep-1610,312.20257.817.631,628,971.21
31-Oct-1610,722.28268.067.881,639,425.44
71,518.141,685.50

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Re: Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by yellow knife on Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:19 pm

so in a  bear market , savers should get more than 7% if they out perform savings account...

I like to see an analysis of Hunter with a list of shares offering higher than 7% dividend yield at current market prices...

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Re: Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by Yin-Yang on Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:01 pm

Mate, this is not the correct analysis.
For the correct picture, you need to consider the inflation rate; for a safe estimate, consider rate at which motor car prices appreciate.

Let's consider a 10%.

Discount your total by a compounding 10% and see what will happen to the value of your savings.
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Re: Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by yellow knife on Thu Nov 10, 2016 7:10 am

Ok... good feed back and expected one Ying Yang

I never considered two concepts in my investment life.

1. Opportunity Cost
2. Inflation

Ok
So we talk about the second one...

Inflation is often measured by Consumer Price Indices and so in SL its CCPI (N)...

What is the value of that...So our inflation rate is slightly below 5 hence the discounting factor should be 5% and not 10%


http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/inflation-cpi


Last edited by yellow knife on Thu Nov 10, 2016 7:48 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by yellow knife on Thu Nov 10, 2016 7:15 am

Now what consist of the basket of Consumer Consumption..

Food and non alcoholic beverages
Clothing and footwea
Housing, Water, electricity and fue

http://www.statistics.gov.lk/price/NCPI/NCPI%20Tecnical%20%20Note.pdf



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Re: Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by yellow knife on Thu Nov 10, 2016 7:19 am

Now if you save to consume sprats, dhal, clothing, etc then discounting is valid.

Ying Yang your consideration of vehicle price is not covered by inflation and if you plan to buy a vehicle out of saving , better move to leasing as its the fastest and saving is out as an alternative.

( I saved and bought a car ) and there are exceptions even for above.


***************************************

If you save and out of your saving interest if you buy shares where the dividend yield is high in a bear market you can create and snow - ball..

*************************************

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Re: Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by yellow knife on Thu Nov 10, 2016 7:23 am

A snowball may also be a large ball of snow formed by rolling a smaller snowball on a snow-covered surface. The smaller snowball grows by picking up additional snow as it rolls. The terms "snowball effect", "snowballing" and "Y Gasseg Eira" are named after this process




Life is like a snow ball...The important thing is finding wet snow and a really long hill...

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Re: Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by yellow knife on Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:04 am




For further studying on Snow Ball


http://moneyboss.com/wealth-snowball/

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Re: Do savers out perform investors at CSE

Post by Yin-Yang on Thu Nov 10, 2016 2:07 pm

You're again correct mates [YK and WB].

Life is like a snowball collecting more snow on the way.

Mind is like a 'koholle' [chewing Gum] ball, sticking onto any surface it touches and collecting lot of dirt on the way.
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