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» Laughter the Best Medicine
Yesterday at 5:03 pm by Ethical Trader

» සිව් හෙලයේ ඉතිහාසය නිවැරදි කිරීම
Yesterday at 1:03 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Dividend Announcement
Yesterday at 11:47 am by Rana

» ප්‍රගීත් එක්නැලිගොඩ: "ෆයිල් අතුරුදහන්වීම" ගැන සන්ධ්‍යා හමුදාපතිට කිවූ දේ
Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:13 pm by Ethical Trader

» China offers best chance for SL development: CB
Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:27 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

»  බැඳුම්කර වාර්තාව
Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:58 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» "මිසයිල් අනතුරු ඇඟවීම වැරදි බොත්තමක් එබීමෙන්"
Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 pm by nihal123

» ඉන්දියාවේ ශ්‍රේෂ්ඨාධිකරණ විනිසුරුවෝ අගවිනිසුරුට එරෙහිව ප්‍රවෘත්ති සාකච්ඡාවක
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:06 pm by Ethical Trader

» එක්කෝටි විසි ලක්ෂයකට අධික ළදරු කිරිපිටි ඇසුරුම් ආපසු කැඳවයි
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:00 pm by Ethical Trader

» ට්‍රම්ප්ගේ "ජාතිවාදී" භාෂාව ගැන කෝපය පළ වේ
Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:32 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» විශ්මිත නිර්මාණ එළිදැක්වූ ලෝකයේ විශාලතම තාක්ෂණික ප්‍රදර්ශනය
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:12 pm by Ethical Trader

» CCTV මගින් රථවාහන දඩ: අත්හදා බැලීම පෙබරවාරියේ
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:00 am by Ethical Trader

» Six-year term for President Sirisena: AG tells Supreme Court
Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:11 pm by Ethical Trader

» US revamps travel warning system; SL gets an okay
Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:09 pm by Ethical Trader

» Term of a Dictator
Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:02 pm by Ethical Trader

» නියම බුදු දහම
Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:44 pm by Ethical Trader

» මන්ත්‍රී විමල්ට අධිචෝදනා පත්‍ර භාර දුන්නේ ඇයි?
Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:31 pm by Ethical Trader

» SEYB.N0000 ( SEYLAN BANK PLC )
Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:25 pm by Ethical Trader

» 2008 -2014 බැඳුම්කර නිකුතු ගැන මහින්ද ප්‍රකාශයක් සිදු කළ යුතුයි - රනිල්
Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:00 pm by yellow knife

» ලෝකයේ රටවල් දෙකක මහා දේශගුණික වෙනස
Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:58 pm by Ethical Trader

» ඉතිහාසයේ පළමු වරට කොටස් වෙළෙඳපොළෙන් ත්‍රිත්ව ශතකයක්
Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:45 pm by Ethical Trader

» RICH N.0000 Richard Pieris and company PLC
Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:14 pm by Ethical Trader

» බැඳුම්කරය: මහින්දගෙන් ප්‍රශ්න කරන්න ජනමාධ්‍ය බයද? - රනිල්
Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:58 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» ලංකාවේ සුපිරිම දුම්රිය ස්ථානය
Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:33 pm by spw19721

» බැඳුම්කර කොල්ලයේ හෙළි වූ හොරු මෙන්න
Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:07 am by Ethical Trader

» අගමැති නිදොස් යයි කීම "ස්වයංවින්දනයක්ද?"
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:51 am by Ethical Trader

» නව බදු : සෞදි බලධාරීන්ගෙන් තවත් පියවරක්
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:48 am by Ethical Trader

» දුප්පත්කමින් එතෙරවීමට ඉනිමං බඳින චීනය
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:45 am by Ethical Trader

» "නාන්න අවසර විනාඩි දෙකයි"
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:39 am by Ethical Trader

» බැඳුම්කර කොමිසමේ නිර්දේශ ක්‍රියාත්මක කරන්න - අගමැතිගෙන් උපදෙස්
Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:24 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» "Politically Black": බ්‍රිතාන්‍යයේ ජාතිවාදයට එරෙහිව සටන් වැදුණු ශ්‍රී ලාංකිකයා
Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:26 pm by Ethical Trader

» 'ෆයර් ඇන්ඩ් ෆියුරි' බොරුවෙන් පිරිලා - ට්‍රම්ප්
Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:22 pm by Ethical Trader

» සුනඛයෙකුට කළ ප්‍රතිකාරයකින් බිම් බෝම්වලට ගොදුරුවූවන්ට "නව බලාපොරොත්තුවක්"
Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:51 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» රවිට නඩු, රනිල්ට තරවටු, සියලු පාඩු අයකර ගැනීමට පියවර- ජනපති කියයි..
Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:24 pm by Ethical Trader

» බැඳුම්කර කොමිසමේ නිර්දේශ: "අගමැතිතුමා නිර්දෝෂී බව කොමිසම සනාථ කළා"
Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:27 pm by CK

» "බරපතල වංචා, දූෂණ" කොමිෂන් වාර්තාවත් ජනපතිට භාර දෙයි
Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:06 am by Ethical Trader

» Banking Sector Outlook-
Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:01 am by Ethical Trader

» දූෂණ පරීක්ෂණවලට තිරිංග දැම්මේ කවුද?
Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:37 pm by CK

» 2018 Calander
Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:07 am by Ethical Trader

» CSE Holidays - 2018
Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:03 am by Ethical Trader

» CB action taken on ailing finance companies.
Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:43 am by Ethical Trader

» World’s Most Toxic Food
Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:28 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» Tempolten's 22 Principles for successful Investments.
Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:18 am by Ethical Trader

» සෞදි අරාබිය සහ එක්සත් අරාබි එමීරය පළමු වරට බදු හඳුන්වා දෙති
Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:14 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» ඉරානය- මරණ විසි ගණනක්; සිය ගණනක් අත්අඩංගුවේ
Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:12 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» ස්වර්ණමහල් සහ ඊටීඅයි ෆිනෑන්ස් සමාගම් මහ බැංකුවේ නියාමනයට
Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:10 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» යාචක තහනම: "යාචකයන්ට දිනකට රු 1,500ක රැකියා"
Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:10 pm by Ethical Trader

» Ouch !
Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:33 am by spw19721

» Flying is the Safest mode of Transport
Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:50 am by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

» What would it be?
Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:04 pm by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා

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Why September Could Be Huge for Markets All Around the World Things are about to get busy.

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Why September Could Be Huge for Markets All Around the World Things are about to get busy.

Post by Backstage on Thu Sep 01, 2016 9:20 am

Why September Could Be Huge for Markets All Around the World
Things are about to get busy.
Sid Verma

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-31/why-september-could-be-huge-for-markets-all-around-the-world


A trader is reflected in a monitor as he works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., on Tuesday, May 28, 2013. U.S. stocks rose, with the Standard & Poors 500 Index rebounding from a weekly loss, after data showed consumer confidence climbed to the highest level since 2008 and home values jumped the most in seven years. P

The first debate of the U.S. presidential campaign. A Group of 20 (G20) central bank interest rate announcement nearly every other trading day. And a key meeting among commodity nations around the world.

With a jam-packed calendar in September, no asset class is immune from potential event risk.

That's not to mention that the month has typically been the worst one for stocks — the only one in which the median return for the S&P 500 has been negative going back to 1928, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch Head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy, Savita Subramanian.

Bank of America

Now, Wall Street strategists are warning of an end to the unusual calm that's characterized markets in August, advising clients to go long volatility, citing, in part, the prospect of rising cross-asset correlations.
Source: Bloomberg

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Head of Global Rates and Currencies Research David Woo, meanwhile, has suggested that investors are being overly complacent about the potential for a "clean sweep" in the upcoming U.S. elections, which would pave the way for fiscal stimulus in the world's largest economy. This, in turn, could deal a major blow to risk parity portfolios in particular on the scale of the taper tantrum of 2013 or the Chinese currency devaluation of 2015.

Of course, there's no guarantee this volatility will ever materialize: strategists were also warning of a swoon in U.S. stocks and uptick in volatility right before they proceeded to march to all-time highs.

The first major headline event to kick off the month's festivities is August's non-farm payrolls report, slated to be released on Friday. A strong number would potentially set the scene for a Federal Reserve rate hike when officials next meet on September 21.

Investors have been repricing the odds of an increase in interest rates upwards in the run-up to Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer's comment that Yellen's remarks were consistent with the possibility of two rate hikes in 2016, though the implied probability of a hike in September has eased in recent sessions.

This argument may be put to rest on Friday, as job growth in August has come in below analysts' expectations for five consecutive years.

Incoming central bank decisions will drive global markets in September, given the potential for a rate hike from the Fed and the impact of large asset-purchasing schemes in the U.K., Japan, and the euro area, for foreign exchange and credit markets, in particular.

The ECB Governing Council meets on 8 September and it faces a make-or-break bid to save its quantitative-easing strategy in the face of self-imposed limits on what it can buy. Analysts say the ECB might extend the horizon of its asset purchase program from March to September 2017.

The next Bank of England meeting is on September 15 — analysts, surveyed by Bloomberg, only see a 6.3 percent probability of a rate cut at that meeting — and attention will focus on the implementation challenges of the monetary authority's bond-purchase scheme after a challenging start for the program.

Similarly, fears are growing the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is exhausting its policy arsenal amid weak GDP, stubborn deflationary pressures, and a declining stock of government bonds available for purchase. The BOJ will announce the results of its comprehensive review of its monetary policy on September 21 — the same day as the Fed decision — amid rising expectations it will cut rates further into negative territory.

The G20 Summit will also take place on September 4-5, with China, the host, seeking to focus on global growth and financial-sector issues. There has been a rhetorical shift in recent months among advanced-economy policy makers in favor of looser fiscal policy, given the declining returns from monetary stimulus.

Although analysts don't foresee a coordinated plan at the G20 level for a large fiscal stimulus plan, markets will be keenly focused on the extent to which policy makers talk up the growth-boosting efficacy of fiscal policy, in general, a development that could reshape trading investments over financial assets, particularly high-grade bonds.

And while the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could be renamed the Organization Who Cried Production Freeze, analysts at Barclays Plc see cause to believe the threat to maintain output at current levels is more credible this time around, with officials from OPEC member countries scheduled to meet in Algeria from September 26 - 28.

"Non-OPEC countries that many analysts thought could not produce more (Russia for example), as well as some OPEC countries have continued to raise their production," writes Kevin Norrish, managing director of commodities research. "So a freeze this time could help stem some potential further supply growth."

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September is also the start of the school year in global primary capital markets and analysts expect a busy pace of U.S. investment-grade issuance despite unusually strong supply in August. Analysts at Bank of America, for example, expect $120 billion in new high-grade bonds. The ease in which credit markets absorb the supply will serve as an indicator of M&A and share buy-back volumes in the second half of year given the bond market's outsize role in such corporate financing activities, say analysts.

In sum: vacation's over. Report back to your terminal immediately.
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