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Trading Journal

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Re: Trading Journal

Post by Backstage on Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:29 am

Thanks , So nicely put.

Any contrary opinions ? Get worried when there isn't any.
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Re: Trading Journal

Post by Axe on Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:53 pm

Thanks xmart. Much appreciated..
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Re: Trading Journal

Post by Yin-Yang on Wed Sep 07, 2016 6:02 pm

Backstage wrote:Thanks , So nicely put.

Any contrary opinions ? Get worried when there isn't any.


Your worry is not baseless.

When everyone's expectation is the same, that's the time to expect the unexpected.

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Re: Trading Journal

Post by xmart on Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:14 pm

thanks everyone Smile

well YY, what you said is partially true. but don't expect the unexpected always. you seems to be considering/ pretending every minor retrecements and corrections as market crashes. the theory you based on is "know it is time to sell when shoeshine boys start giving you stock tips" which is also a part of Elliot wave theory.



Wave 1

The stock makes its initial move upwards. This is usually caused by a relatively small number of people that all of the sudden (for a variety of reasons, real or imagined) feel that the price of the stock is cheap so it’s a perfect time to buy. This causes the price to rise.

Wave 2

At this point, enough people who were in the original wave consider the stock overvalued and take profits. This causes the stock to go down. However, the stock will not make it to its previous lows before the stock is considered a bargain again.

(we are currently at the wave 2 in mid term, and we can expect the biggest and wave 3 to occur in coming months)

Wave 3

This is usually the longest and strongest wave. The stock has caught the attention of the mass public. More people find out about the stock and want to buy it. This causes the stock’s price to go higher and higher. This wave usually exceeds the high created at the end of wave 1.

Wave 4

Traders take profits because the stock is considered expensive again. This wave tends to be weak because there are usually more people that are still bullish on the stock and are waiting to “buy on the dips.”

Wave 5

This is the point that most people get on the stock and is most driven by hysteria. You usually start seeing the CEO of the company on the front page of major magazines as the Person of the Year. Traders and investors start coming up with ridiculous reasons to buy the stock and try to choke you when you disagree with them. This is when the stock becomes the most overpriced. Contrarians start shorting the stock which starts the ABC pattern.

YY, what you call is this 5th phase. then the correction waves will start.
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Re: Trading Journal

Post by xmart on Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:25 pm

it seems JKH is becoming attractive again. currently trading at 50% fib (149.4) and entry around 147 would be handy for a target of 168-170.

moreover, with JKH upward appreciation (most probably after September) market will resume its upward movement as well.

cheer!
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Re: Trading Journal

Post by pathfinder on Mon Sep 12, 2016 8:36 pm

Good one XMart,it also endorse what I said.
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Re: Trading Journal

Post by Yin-Yang on Mon Sep 12, 2016 9:00 pm

xmart wrote:thanks everyone Smile

well YY, what you said is partially true. but don't expect the unexpected always. you seems to be considering/ pretending every minor retrecements and corrections as market crashes. the theory you based on is "know it is time to sell when shoeshine boys start giving you stock tips" which is also a part of Elliot wave theory.
+
+
+

Wave 3

This is usually the longest and strongest wave. The stock has caught the attention of the mass public. More people find out about the stock and want to buy it. This causes the stock’s price to go higher and higher. This wave usually exceeds the high created at the end of wave 1.

Wave 4

Traders take profits because the stock is considered expensive again. This wave tends to be weak because there are usually more people that are still bullish on the stock and are waiting to “buy on the dips.”

+
+

YY, what you call is this 5th phase. then the correction waves will start.

Excellente! xmart,

Very good explanation.

But I have a small question.


So, according to Mr. Elliott, the longest and the strongest is the 'wave -3'.

And who is buying in wave -3; mass public.

That means, mass public is holding when the the stock moves 'longest and strongest'.

So then, the mass public must be the one making 'longest and strongest' profits; shouldn't they?

If so, mass public must be earning more profits than minorities in the stock market.

Is it true?

If so, I want to be part of mass public. Do you?



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Re: Trading Journal

Post by xmart on Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:57 am

YY wrote:But I have a small question.

good question though i know you already know the answer. you are more matured investor than me and you have a great sense of crowd behavior in CSE.

anyway,

investment funds, HNWI and small percentage of retail investors (i have read somewhere its somewhere around 5% of total investors) acquire the liquidity of stocks in wave 01. wave 02 is mostly due to exit of people with break even (who stuck with the stock earlier) and part of profit takers.

breaking of last high of wave 01 would trigger the entry of most traders and investors, thus drive the share price. most of investors and traders made profit from wave 3 but lion shares will be remain with the people who acquire the liquidity in wave 01.

for your question, YY

mass public drive the price and they earn some handful amount in wave 03. but institutions, HNWI and smart investors (very few retail investors) will have the lion share.
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Re: Trading Journal

Post by Yin-Yang on Tue Sep 13, 2016 11:24 am

It's getting better, Yes.
Thanks for your explanations XM.

Still, another small thing.


In case you believe in Elliott;

Where [which wave] do you think the best and most reliable place to buy and best and most reliable place to sell as a retailer; at least in theory?

Do you have any proven method to find those places before it happens [at least half of the time]?


[Sorry, if you have already explained it somewhere earlier]








+++++++++++++

And if I am not asking too much;

What are the worst and most unreliable places to buy and sell as a retailer?

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Re: Trading Journal

Post by xmart on Tue Sep 13, 2016 11:55 am

YY
And if I am not asking too much

no problem my friend.

YY wrote:Where [which wave] do you think the best and most reliable place to buy and best and most reliable place to sell as a retailer; at least in theory?

as a retailer, i believe it is best time to buy is breaking of last high made by wave 01. wave 01 is not easy to identify and wave 01 can take any pattern. therefore, most reliable point to enter is breaking of wave 01 high (of course, it shall be confirmed with CCI, ADX or MACD) by wave 03.

dangerous point to enter is wave 02, if you are not sure about macro economic picture and not a seasoned investor.

YY wrote:What are the worst and most unreliable places to buy and sell as a retailer?

wave 05 is the most unreliable place to buy. thats where BFL goes to 550, GREG finding of gold mine and PCH becoming the tech giant came into the news. sadly, this is where most people jump with all they have.

unreliable place to buy: wave 02
worst place to buy: wave 05

you can ride the full trend, or you can satisfy with 10%, 15%. its up to the individual preferences. for me, wave 04 and wave 05 are the best time to sell.
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Re: Trading Journal

Post by Yin-Yang on Tue Sep 13, 2016 12:47 pm

Very clear explanations xmart.

As I understand, your understanding is, the best place to buy is when the market price is moving up in 'wave 3'.

And the best place to sell is when the price is at 'wave 4 or wave 5'.

[Sounds not much deviated from 'Mass public']

And, approximately, your profit will be equal to half of the height of wave 3.

Correct?


If yes and if I calculate your profits;

If the height of those rising waves is roughly Rupees 10.

Your profit will be about Rupees 5.

Where; the total height of the trend is about Rupees 25-30.

So the efficiency of this method, to harness the market trend, is less than 20%.

Am I correct?


And, it sounds very difficult to catch enough volumes when the price is rising in wave 3 [when mass public is buying].
So the reliability of filling enough volumes with intended price sounds little low.

Am I correct?


If I am to summarize; the method indicates you a rather low volume price to buy with 20% efficiency in capturing a trend.


Do you think we can improve this further?

If you need a target, I have already a precooked one.

"100% reliability with 100% of the trend"

How about that?

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Re: Trading Journal

Post by xmart on Tue Sep 13, 2016 2:34 pm

As I understand, your understanding is, the best place to buy is when the market price is moving up in 'wave 3'.

no. it was wave 01 or wave 02 if you are confident enough. breaking of wave 01 high would give a safe entry. liquidity may not be a problem for a retailer.

And the best place to sell is when the price is at 'wave 4 or wave 5'.


most retailers would exit within wave 3. if they can see the pattern they can at least stay till wave 3 finished. most people would exit around wave 4 and wave 5.

approximately, your profit will be equal to half of the height of wave 3.

Correct?

Surprised i don't know how you come to that conclusion! you will get at least 70-80% of wave 3 gain by following above.

If yes and if I calculate your profits;

If the height of those rising waves is roughly Rupees 10.

Your profit will be about Rupees 5.

Where; the total height of the trend is about Rupees 25-30.

So the efficiency of this method, to harness the market trend, is less than 20%.

Am I correct?

wrong.

And, it sounds very difficult to catch enough volumes when the price is rising in wave 3 [when mass public is buying].
So the reliability of filling enough volumes with intended price sounds little low.

Am I correct?

since we are talking about retailers, liquidity might not be a big problem to acquire few thousands of shares.

If I am to summarize; the method indicates you a rather low volume price to buy with 20% efficiency in capturing a trend.

to capture 20% in a bull trend you need not to worry about any technical or fundamental. you can virtually make 15-20% from any share.

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Re: Trading Journal

Post by Yin-Yang on Tue Sep 13, 2016 3:39 pm

xmart wrote:+
+
+
+

approximately, your profit will be equal to half of the height of wave 3.

Correct?

Surprised i don't know how you come to that conclusion! you will get at least 70-80% of wave 3 gain by following above.



May be we are going off topic.

But can you give a real example from the recent market?
to show what is the breakout above wave 1 high, and the exit price in wave 4.

Trust it will help us to understand this better.


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Re: Trading Journal

Post by xmart on Tue Sep 13, 2016 4:27 pm

well, thats a good idea!

lets look at VONE daily chart



daily chart of VONE clearly show us impulse and correction waves.

Elliot wave started at 15.6 but if one follow stoch RSI with the chart, buy call was confirm around 16.50 (within wave 01). sell call was triggered at 22.20 (after wave 5). this is option 01.

more conservative investor would buy after breaking the high of wave 01 (19.00) and exit around wave 05 (21.00). we can see wave extension at wave 05, which is also a part of the theory. this is option 02.

opt 01 would make you 34% gain while opt 02 would make 11% gain. one should have a keen eye and good practice to identify trends and mix correct set of indicators. one indicator alone would not be sufficient.

thanks
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Re: Trading Journal

Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:22 pm

Can there be more than Three (upwards) Waves ?
(Just curious). Very Happy
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Re: Trading Journal

Post by Yin-Yang on Tue Sep 13, 2016 7:43 pm

Fanstasticai!! XM.
Super chart.

Now since we are talking of Mr Elliott's model, I will skip the RSI 'returning from over sold/bought' signals.

Then we are left with option 02.

Agreed?

I would explain my calculations below;

Height of the trend, from 15.6 to 22.9 = Rs 7.3
Agreed?

Height of wave 3, 17.5 to 21.1 = Rs 3.6
Agreed?

Mid of wave 4, 21.1 and 19.7 = 20.4
Agreed?

Profit, by breaking out wave 1 and exit in wave 4 [mid], 19.1 to 20.4 = Rs 1.3

Hence, the profit as a % of height of wave 3 is, Rs 1.3 against Rs 3.6 = 36%

That's why I said "less than half of wave 3".
Fair enough?

Then, the profit as a % of the trend is, Rs 1.3 against Rs 7.3 = 18%.
That's why I said "less than 20% of the trend".


++++++++++

With your data, Enter 19.1 and exit 21.0, the profit as a % of the trend is, 1.9 against 7.3, = 26%

RSI entry/exit would give, 16.5 to 22.2 against 7.3 = 78%
[That looks something]


++++++


Still my questions are;

|||||to capture 20% in a bull trend you need not to worry about any technical or fundamental. you can virtually make 15-20% from any share. |||||

1) Is this still valid? If so, Elliott is inferior than using no TA or FA ?


2) Can we find a way to catch a better portion [more than 80%] of a trend using Elliott?







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Re: Trading Journal

Post by xmart on Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:27 pm

well YY, i am impressed Smile

lets not forgot the initial question raised by you, which was regarding safe entry and exit for a retail trader. do not forget there are 3 impulse (or extended) waves.   if anyone want to catch the full swing they must practice their eyes and knowledge.

that 11% safe gain should be enough for a new trader, for that short time period.

i think i clarified Elliot as simple as i can. one can combine Elliot with Fibonacci Retracements, and confirm signals with Stoch RSI, MACD, ADX etc. with a trained eye one can catch around 80% of the trend (with some associated risks). if one want to catch 100% movement, i do not know a way. either that one must have hundreds of millions (which make him a market maker) or simply a fortune teller.

YY, you are not a novice, i feel that you are asking questions which you know the answers. anyway these record will be here anyone interested can gain something out of our discussion. right?

cheer!


Last edited by xmart on Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:34 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Trading Journal

Post by xmart on Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:29 pm

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:Can there be more than Three (upwards) Waves ?
(Just curious). Very Happy

kith, normally there are only 3 upward waves. but any leg can be extended. for the reasons given, most of the time wave 5 got extended.

Smile
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Re: Trading Journal

Post by Yin-Yang on Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:40 pm

xmart wrote:
+
+
+
1)

if one want to catch 100% movement, i do not know a way. either that one must have hundreds of millions (which make him a market maker) or simply a fortune teller.

2)

YY, you are not a novice, i feel that you are asking questions which you know the answers. anyway these record will be here anyone interested can gain something out of our discussion. right?

cheer!


2) Of course, both you and I know that.


1) What if I said, there exists one way of catching 'almost 100%' as a retailer, and want to sell it, how much would you like to pay for that knowledge ?

Prior to that, would you believe such would exist?

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Re: Trading Journal

Post by yellow knife on Wed Sep 14, 2016 7:55 am

Good discussion...thanks X & Y

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Re: Trading Journal

Post by 007 on Wed Sep 14, 2016 1:22 pm

Yin yang
I think u already know a better way can u explain us
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Re: Trading Journal

Post by Yin-Yang on Wed Sep 14, 2016 1:41 pm

Knowing something will not be much useful.

In order to harness the benefits, you should believe in it.

When you believe in it only, the better way will find you.


Do you believe in Mr Elliott's idea ?
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Re: Trading Journal

Post by 007 on Wed Sep 14, 2016 3:02 pm

Yes I am believing Mr Elliott but how to use it to achieve nearly 100% percent accuracy
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Re: Trading Journal

Post by Yin-Yang on Wed Sep 14, 2016 4:06 pm

Which part of his idea do you believe in exactly?
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Re: Trading Journal

Post by 007 on Wed Sep 14, 2016 7:43 pm

Stocks move in waves Mr dow also tells this 100% agreed
mass psychology always showed up in the same repetitive patterns 90% agreed other part I think I believe 80 %
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