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Where is Backstage

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Where is Backstage

Post by Backstage on Wed May 18, 2016 12:49 pm

Errr.... Embarassed here I am.
With many of the big fish away from the pond, I was swimming around happily. I thought I will take a few days off and my forum fans will make a posts looking high and low for me. three days went by, then four , six, then ten. Not a post, not a pm, not an email inquiring about me or my well being..... ahhhh now its about two weeks and not a peep if I am dead or alive, Idea so I decided to come back and heal myself by doing the post myself ! Neutral
And loook over here, MobyDick hisself is back in da pond, so I will give up my fantasies and go back to being a pilot fish feeding off the Loolla's. Will try again though at the next plunge. Meanwhile lot to read backwards. And companies seemed to have made money last quarter while we were talking shop. Very Happy
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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by yellow knife on Wed May 18, 2016 1:00 pm

Poor Mobidick

The last part of the move Heart of Sea, it says man has found oil in land hence no need to catch whales for oil...

So no one cares about where Mobidick is ..



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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by Backstage on Wed May 18, 2016 1:11 pm

YK saw the movie, the story was interesting but not a patch on the book which was gripping, but then I was a teenager reading...

Enjoying the market action I presume.
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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by slstock on Wed May 18, 2016 1:37 pm

Mooobyyyy....!!  cheers ( didn't want to call you a Dick)

Good to see you.

Was thinking where  the heck  you were  but  then again thought you must be busy making sandwiches without  a "Dompe Aya"

Thought I'd not see you here before my  parting.

Btw , you are Bana talking.
You think they will miss you if you go missing for 2 weeks? In your dreams buddy.

Maybe if you gave 1000 rupee notes before you went  or even a share tip that made others 100000 rupees , maybe 1 or 2 will remember you. This is Sri Lanka.  
( You might want to read "Note to members" thread to pacify yourself)

Later Alligator ( Or should I call you  "Passe Wedhikawa")

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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by Backstage on Wed May 18, 2016 1:45 pm


Aiyyo, going already ? I haven't yet gone through the posts. Not sandwiches, I was "Wal kotanawa" last two weeks, opened up my old karagateh.
Your pick Lfin has been the shining light in my pf.

Why don't you wait till at least all the results are out ?
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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by Ethical Trader on Wed May 18, 2016 1:55 pm

Nice to see you again.
Backstage wrote:Errr....   Embarassed  here I am.
With many of the big fish away from the pond, I was swimming around happily. I thought I will take a few days off and my forum fans will make a posts looking high and low for me. three days went by, then four , six, then ten. Not a post, not a pm, not an email inquiring about me or my well being..... ahhhh now its about two weeks and not a peep if I am dead or alive,  Idea so I decided to come back and heal myself by doing the post myself ! Neutral
And loook over here, MobyDick hisself is back in da pond, so I will give up my fantasies and go back to being a pilot fish feeding off the Loolla's. Will try again though at the next plunge. Meanwhile lot to read backwards. And companies seemed to have made money last quarter while we were talking shop. Very Happy
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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by slstock on Wed May 18, 2016 1:55 pm

Only LFIN you have of all the stuff I said over 1000s of pages Razz

What crap are you holding haha
( good thing this is posted in the chill out spot section )



Well hold on.
LFIN goody bag is yet to come ( end of the month I think )

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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by Backstage on Wed May 18, 2016 2:06 pm

From your picks I have LFIN and CDB. Also ACL and APLA in the wifey pf.

Also have been waiting long time for ALLI action hoping now is the time.
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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by slstock on Wed May 18, 2016 2:14 pm

Let talk while we can.

ACL and APLA in wifey port? Smart move I must say Razz

Didn't you pick up all the hints I gave year after year since 2013 on ALLI .
Sometimes when you brought it up , i recall I even commented directly.
( major opportunity cost)

But I agree, it is undervalued. When will it go ?
Ask ........ ......


Backstage wrote:From your picks I have LFIN and CDB. Also ACL and APLA in the wifey pf.

Also have been waiting long time for ALLI action hoping now is the time.

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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by Backstage on Wed May 18, 2016 2:24 pm

[quote="slstock"]Let talk while we can.

ACL and  APLA in wifey port?  Smart move I must say Razz

Didn't  you pick up all the hints I gave year after year since 2013 on ALLI .
Sometimes when you brought it up , i recall I even commented directly.  
( major opportunity cost)

But I agree, it is undervalued.  When will it go ?
Ask ........  ......


Backstage wrote:From your picks I have LFIN and CDB. Also ACL and APLA in the wifey pf.

Also have been waiting long time for ALLI action hoping now is the time.



I think, after standing down on the minimum float rule, the CSE said that they are
discussing with the companies to come to an "understanding". I think they have requested the smaller float companies to voluntarily expand the float. I think there are going to be more splits based on this coming up ( Note : this is pure speculation on my part). I also feel that ALLI results are going to be good and this might be the right time.
Do you have another picture ? Suspect
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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by slstock on Wed May 18, 2016 2:39 pm

1) ALLI public holding is far above the requirement. There is no regulatory need for a split unless they decide to do it voluntarily.

2) They also can give a share "Bonus" in old terms if they wish to add liquidity.

3) Also a hefty Final dividend might awaken it .


4) Main issue I see with ALLI is their unpredictability at times ( reporting earnings) . Also they screwed up the financial reporting/calcs few times in the recent past didn't they

You might want to get in touch with Chemist to ask the Roman haha.


Well you held all these years. No reason to sell now any case when they recovered.

Hope for the best one of the above things will happen.

Btw, my non top 20 list, Hunt holding is like a rock too.
So don't feel bad about ALLI .

Atleast you got a good dividend last time right?


Last edited by slstock on Wed May 18, 2016 2:44 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by The Alchemist on Wed May 18, 2016 2:43 pm

Re ALLI - I have a hunch that it will outperform all other comparable FIN companies like, CFIN, PLC, VFIN, LFIN, CDB etc within next 6 months. pls note all current prices and keep for future comparison.

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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by slstock on Wed May 18, 2016 2:48 pm

Al,

1)
Well it can move at a fast rate when the time is right. Yes.

But out performing is relative word.

Ex: Take LFIN.
This moved from Rs 100 to 270 ( with hefty dividends) from 2012 to now.
Or from 2014 about 100% .


So if ALLI moves, it need to out perform the shares you mentioned.

2)
But how far can it go?
Last high ( in 2011) was Rs 1700 I vaguely recall. ( before Cap of reserve)

For sake of argument to go with you statement of out performing ,
say ALLI more than doubles in price to go again to Rs 1700.

Do you see a fundamental issue ( compared to the sector) ?
Hint think PE ratios.


3)
Also don't forget CFIN if you are taking ALLI to be the most undervalued wrd to Assets.


So what you stated is tricky statement.

4)
Btw if ALLI does not report atleast Rs 40 eps this quarter I will not be happy with them.
Predicting ALLI earning is tough due to their "ways".



BIG NOTE TO PEOPLE READING THIS:

This is academic discussion. Do nto assume the number stated will happen .
(for example 100% run, when ever)

These are just example to discuss only.





The Alchemist wrote:Re ALLI - I have a hunch that it will outperform all other comparable FIN companies like, CFIN, PLC, VFIN, LFIN, CDB etc within next 6 months. pls note all current prices and keep for future comparison.


Last edited by slstock on Wed May 18, 2016 3:01 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by Backstage on Wed May 18, 2016 3:00 pm

I think he means company performance and not price performance.
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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by The Alchemist on Wed May 18, 2016 3:06 pm

sls, what i meant was if you take today's prices of ALLI, CFIN, LFIN, VFIN, CDB etc, and compare within a timeframe of next 6 months, my hunch is that ALLI's price potential appreciation will be the most.
i am expecting a big split say 10 or 1.
the Split will be the catalyst for the price movement.
right now price is approx 780.
NAV at end march could be 1170 ?
PE for FY 2015/2016 = 5

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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by The Alchemist on Wed May 18, 2016 3:06 pm

sls, what i meant was if you take today's prices of ALLI, CFIN, LFIN, VFIN, CDB etc, and compare within a timeframe of next 6 months, my hunch is that ALLI's price potential appreciation will be the most.
i am expecting a big split say 10 or 1.
the Split will be the catalyst for the price movement.
right now price is approx 780.
NAV at end march could be 1170 ?
PE for FY 2015/2016 = 5

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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by slstock on Wed May 18, 2016 3:07 pm

Al can clarify.

But what do you expect by company performance?

Do you mean you expect them to report eps of about Rs 80 per quarter for next 2 quarters to say it will out perform the massive growth by some other fincos ( example LFIN)?


Maybe you have not seen it yet, but in one my articles ( or LFIN thread), I said I have concern that June quarter will be an acid test for Fincos. ( you will have lot of reading stuff now to catch up)

I am not sure , but I feel June is the quarter to watch out how Fincos manage the rate changes.

So even if this quarter is good for ALLI, they need to pass the June test .


Also note , leaving aside superior asset value of ALLI, if you go by PE

LFIN if trading at PE of about 5. If ALLI report eps of Rs 40 in march , they ALLI PE is also 5.


So , you guys can expect a fair run if such split comes ( maybe) , but best not expect massive runs to make PE of 10. ( to be on the safe side)

You see what I am saying?



Backstage wrote:I think he means company performance and not price performance.

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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by Backstage on Wed May 18, 2016 3:13 pm

Al, why would they have performed better than the others ? Superior management/marketing ?
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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by slstock on Wed May 18, 2016 3:24 pm

The Alchemist wrote:sls, what i meant was if you take today's prices of ALLI, CFIN, LFIN, VFIN, CDB etc, and compare within a timeframe of next 6 months, my hunch is that ALLI's price potential appreciation will be the most.

Well no arg there.
Like I explained in detail, ALLI need to out perform if they want to catch up with
LFIN etc. It has significantly under performed so far. So it they don't out perform
you guys held a dud.


But

1) if this run happens it better happen before June results ( just a weird hunch I get . I explained why)
2) note what I said about PE rates also

3) Look guys, just to be on the safe side, if you guys are holding bigger quantity of ALLI,
I would spread my holding ( part of ALLI ) to something else that is more sure .

Thay way you spread your risk if there is no massive gain you expect by chance.

Just an idea.

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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by HUNTER on Wed May 18, 2016 4:10 pm

Backstage wrote:
Aiyyo, going already ? I haven't yet gone through the posts. Not sandwiches, I was "Wal kotanawa" last two weeks, opened up my old karagateh.
Your pick Lfin has been the shining light in my pf.

Why don't you wait till at least all the results are out ?

Oh my buddy Dick, it seems your approach to 'Wal' is the same as to shares;
There are 'grass cutters' going at cheap these days; buy one and no more 'karagata' neh?

On a serious note, I can spare couple of days there if you need any help.


Regarding ALLI,
(I exited above 800/- few months ago (I think I told you so at that time) with 'no loss no gain' so think my view is more neutral here)

Historically, it seems, ALLI is reporting its highest earning figures in March, so we can expect some 'fabulous' numbers this quarter. However, as I noticed, market has not been responding in any direct manner to the results. May be the price level is too high to attract any 'speculators'.

On the other hand, in the long term outlook, I still do not see any signals of a major price move either up or down. So, in my view, ALLI does not show any interest in moving out of the range 700/-~900/-.

In summary, since the price is near the bottom of the range, this is not the right time to sell. Perhaps when it reaches near 900/-, I think, is the right time to consider some (partial) exit.
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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by CK on Wed May 18, 2016 5:48 pm

Backstage nice to see you again.  But I wonder where is pathfinder? Question
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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by Backstage on Thu May 19, 2016 3:23 pm

HUNTER wrote:
Backstage wrote:
Aiyyo, going already ? I haven't yet gone through the posts. Not sandwiches, I was "Wal kotanawa" last two weeks, opened up my old karagateh.
Your pick Lfin has been the shining light in my pf.

Why don't you wait till at least all the results are out ?

Oh my buddy Dick, it seems your approach to 'Wal' is the same as to shares;
There are 'grass cutters' going at cheap these days; buy one and no more 'karagata' neh?

On a serious note, I can spare couple of days there if you need any help.


Regarding ALLI,
(I exited above 800/- few months ago (I think I told you so at that time) with 'no loss no gain' so think my view is more neutral here)

Historically, it seems, ALLI is reporting its highest earning figures in March, so we can expect some 'fabulous' numbers this quarter. However, as I noticed, market has not been responding in any direct manner to the results. May be the price level is too high to attract any 'speculators'.

On the other hand, in the long term outlook, I still do not see any signals of a major price move either up or down. So, in my view, ALLI does not show any interest in moving out of the range 700/-~900/-.

In summary, since the price is near the bottom of the range, this is not the right time to sell. Perhaps when it reaches near 900/-, I think, is the right time to consider some (partial) exit.


Hunt, I first did it the old fashioned way with the kaththeh, some of the creepers were tough as metal and the kaththeh's were soon blunt. Then I went with a friend and a brush cutter and polished it up. Hard work then river bath and fun times. We had to wrap up early everyday as after 3.00 rain and mist. Next time will check you out.

SLS put me right on my speculation of ALLI free float, there I was dreaming without actually checking the figures. But, since I have been holding since 2011, I will wait a wee bit longer if the results are up to expectations. Noted your points though.Thanks.
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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by Backstage on Thu May 19, 2016 3:32 pm

charith666lk wrote:Backstage nice to see you again.  But I wonder where is pathfinder? Question

Charith nice to see you too. Path, Rapaport, Doc Stock , Jana1,Stumpy,DG, Puli, Jiiggy ect ect all long term guys, will show up sooner or later. They are the Nexus of this community.
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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by CK on Sat Jun 11, 2016 7:34 pm

Actually where are you dear BS? Are you ok friend?
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Re: Where is Backstage

Post by nihal123 on Mon Jun 20, 2016 10:51 pm

2016  ජුනි 07 දා  ප.ව 3:27 සිට ආගිය අතක් නැත. සොයාදෙන්න.

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