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» Obituary Notice.
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LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by nihal123 on Thu Jul 20, 2017 12:06 am

Thanks Kith and Rana
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:31 am

Good discussion. Thanks guys.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:50 pm

Thought of analyzing LLUB as diverse opinions are expressed over its current price drop. Following is the ATrad technical chart as of today;

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All technical indicators such as MA (very much above the price line), PSAR (positioned above the price line), BB (widening along with the price decline), MA Cross(above the price line), MACD (widening visibly for some time now) and RSI (over sold region @ 13) are negative for some time now. Heavy selling was witnessed last few days but some buying is witnessed today.

Fundamentally, PER @11.60x(EPS Rs:14.51), DY 12.06%(Dividend Rs:18.00), ROE 78.21(Very good), PBV 9.21x(Net Asset Value Per Share Rs: 16.20) and Cash Per Share Rs:0.49(Too low?).

However, Sector PER is 8.3x, PBV is 1.5x & DY is 4.6%. Accordingly, Sector PER & PBV wise current price is over valued but Sector DY wise its a very much sought after share today.

Both Technically and Fundamentally, current price drop will continue. Those who love this share may watch cautiously.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by CK on Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:42 pm

Today closed at 146.50 and can see a high selling pressure. Better to wait till the selling pressure gradually decreases.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by The Invisible on Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:43 pm

The decline in profitability of the last quarter seems not fully reflects on the share price. I think 140/- could act as a support level.

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Tue Aug 01, 2017 7:28 am

Thanks ET

Yes it seems LIOC is slowly eating up the Lubricant share from LLUB. Its a very small negligible portion yet cannot be neglected. LLUB will soon develop a strategy to catch up ...

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Tue Aug 01, 2017 7:44 am

Sri Lanka’s lubricants market is led by Chevron Lubricants Lanka PLC, the local unit of the US-based multinational, which had a market share of 45.29 percent by 2016, against 47.58 percent in 2015 and 49.3 percent in 2014.

Chevron had lost Market Share .

But Chevron Lanka has been losing its market share during the last few years as the next biggest player, Lanka Indian Oil Corporation PLC (LIOC) and a couple of other new entrants were seen gaining ground.   
LIOC increased its market share to 16.4 percent in 2016 from 14.9 percent a year earlier but Ceylon Petroleum Corporation, the third largest player, lost the market share from 9.2 percent to 8.4 percent.

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Tue Aug 01, 2017 8:36 am

Wiser to hold both in different proportions according to the situation prevailing.
( 80% to 20 % looks good enough right now).
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by malanp on Tue Aug 01, 2017 10:45 am

People who sold at 158 levels are the winners.

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:24 pm

Unable to understand as to why Mal got negative reps.
malanp wrote:People who sold at 158 levels are the winners.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by CK on Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:26 pm

CK wrote:With the selling pressure, 140 even possible. As danidu said, we should wait till the direction is clear or bottoming out.
Done. Big transaction at 136
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:27 pm

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Price drop accelerated after announcement of Chairman's retirement.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Danidu on Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:34 pm

Ohhh....it came to 136 suddenly. Rolling Eyes

CK wrote:
CK wrote:With the selling pressure, 140 even possible. As danidu said, we should wait till the direction is clear or bottoming out.
Done. Big transaction at 136

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by malanp on Tue Aug 01, 2017 11:00 pm

LLUB and LIOC, no future, only frustration.

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Wed Aug 02, 2017 7:13 am

malanp wrote:LLUB and LIOC, no future, only frustration.


There was a time ( not long ago ) retail investors said its better to go to hospital than buying Plantation shares...

Evaluate the cycles... Buying at Nadir is better than buying at Zenith... Yet its always better not to catch falling knives...

Bottom Fishing is different from Catching Falling Knives...

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In the shade of skyscrapers
Live the children of crisis
Their minds are absorptive
Fed with empty promises
Catch the falling knife
In captivity the animals rarely thrive
Wealth whets appetite
For victory in this unequal fight
Who's gonna cease this nightmare
Only the strongest will survive
They put their hands in the air
To catch the falling knife

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by spw19721 on Wed Aug 02, 2017 7:22 am

Well said YK..

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by CK on Wed Aug 02, 2017 12:51 pm

As long as machines used by humans, the demand for lubrication and fuel are there.
But when electric vehicles dominates, they won't need engine oils or fuel. But gear oil, differential oil, grease,etc are needed.
For charging these vehicles, need electricity.  So again for generating electricity, diesel will be needed.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:44 pm

As far as fundamentals are concerned, the fair value @ present is around Rs:120.00 but it will not fall that much because of Good dividend payments history.

Actually those who bought @ Rs: 180s should not be worry (true the value has gone down but) as their DY is over 10%. They can now average down easily. This is a good share to have long term.

Short term guys will have some issues if they don't have holding power.

CK wrote:
CK wrote:With the selling pressure, 140 even possible. As danidu said, we should wait till the direction is clear or bottoming out.
Done. Big transaction at 136
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Wed Aug 02, 2017 3:10 pm

Hitherto, it is a Good one to hold, not a Hot Potato to drop just like that.
(Hold fair amount of this counter). Very Happy
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by CK on Wed Aug 02, 2017 3:14 pm

Ethical Trader wrote:As far as fundamentals are concerned, the fair value @ present is around Rs:120.00 but it will not fall that much because of Good dividend payments history.

Actually those who bought @ Rs: 180s should not be worry (true the value has gone down but) as their DY is over 10%. They can now average down easily. This is a good share to have long term.

Short term guys will have some issues if they don't have holding power.

CK wrote:
CK wrote:With the selling pressure, 140 even possible. As danidu said, we should wait till the direction is clear or bottoming out.
Done. Big transaction at 136
Agree. Long term counter with good dividend yield. But due to this fall , also there may be some trading opportunities.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Danidu on Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:25 am

scratch scratch scratch

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:00 pm

Below is today's LLUB chart as @ 11.50 am. All indicators are negative. RSI @ over sold region but not sure whether the price would bounce back due to foreign selling.  

[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this link.][/img]

Below is the LLUB order book @ the same time. The order book had over 200,000 bids five minutes before I copied this, but it dropped to  155217 bids and now there are less buyers than sellers. Yesterday foreigners sold their holdings than buying.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]" />


Last edited by Ethical Trader on Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:05 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by CK on Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:04 pm

CK wrote:
කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:Won't it be too late then ?  Very Happy
AjithR wrote:Good share with regular dividends, would like to add some more to PF  once stabilized the price.
Foreigners are selling aggressively. So my view is to wait if someone want to average down. You have enough time to collect this.
now 128. still the call is wait.. Shocked
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:16 pm

Below is the LLUB Trade summary as @ 12.14. Most number of trades were @ Rs: 128.00. Now its DY is very attractive- over 14%!

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by The Invisible on Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:54 pm

DY is based on latest dividend announcement?

Is it realistic for the future?

If we buy today then our DY will be dividends declared within one year from now divided by the cost to us now so that still we can enjoy the same DY?

If the Q3 and Q4 of LLUB result is the same then can you and me expect the same dividends compared to the last year?

The answer is not.

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