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LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:39 am

Despite availability of high cost IT facilities authorities just sleep on it. Instead, they want us to report matters to them.
කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:Yesterday morning when it started to move, I was wondering who got the smell of the dividend first.
Authorities should investigate those who have bought shares early in the day to see if any insider trading is involved.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:02 am

See the order book today. Its very weak. Many bids are below Rs:116/=
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by guruji on Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:02 pm

After xd date this will slide more ,don't know wts to do with losses

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:09 pm

Guruji, don't worry. Even at the current price level, its DY is over 15%! More than the FD rates, provided they continue to pay dividends at this rate! Watch the decline, & Just average down carefully in small quantities. Don't jump in big.
guruji wrote:  After xd date this will slide more ,don't know wts to do with losses
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by poor boy on Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:22 pm

this year the eps will be around 11 rupees. still they can continue to pay a good dividend .dividend yield 10 percent is fine. yesterday i didnt smell a dividend but i bought few thousand shares bcz i thought this is an opportunity .i think 109 rupees is in the oversold region. when ioc came in to operation people got panicked and sold at cheap but we saw how this share rewarded its shareholders. i think below 120 is an opportunity.

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by CK on Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:01 pm

My broker said there is a pushing from a broker firm (don't want to gv the name as this is not confirmed ). So there can be some trading opportunities, but be careful of dumping their qty.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by guruji on Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:08 pm

Thanks ethical trader

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by The Alchemist on Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:26 pm

after split sometime back, price adjusted to rs 150 and then went up to around rs 180. since earnings have come down approx 30 % last 2 q's, if you take split adjusted rs 150 and minus 30 %, it comes to rs 105. if earnings are going to be rs 11-12 per share and dividend is rs 10, then eps 8-9 and div yield 10 % makes fair value around 100-105. especially if lubs market share is shrinking, taxes, competition and future earnings is unsure.  
what do you think ?

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by malanp on Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:41 pm

malanp wrote:People who sold at 158 levels are the winners.

I got two negative rep for writing this..

People who sold at 158 levels are the real winners..

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:36 am

Thanks Al for the analysis. My comment on 15% DY is based on their ability to maintain the current dividend level. You presume that might be lesser than now. Its a good viewpoint to look at seriously.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by First Guy on Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:21 pm

Ethical Trader wrote:Thanks Al for the analysis. My comment on 15% DY is based on their ability to maintain the current dividend level. You presume that might be lesser than now. Its a good viewpoint to look at seriously.

15% is based on past dividends. They can't pay same amount when earning less. Yield will drop in future due to lower dividends.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:36 am

Correct but there are some companies who maintain the same dividend level despite low EPS using their fat reserves. Last final account showa Rs: 3.2 billion retained earnings!  
First Guy wrote:
Ethical Trader wrote:Thanks Al for the analysis. My comment on 15% DY is based on their ability to maintain the current dividend level. You presume that might be lesser than now. Its a good viewpoint to look at seriously.

15% is based on past dividends. They can't pay same amount when earning less. Yield will drop in future due to lower dividends.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by First Guy on Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:45 pm

Ethical Trader wrote:Correct but there are some companies who maintain the same dividend level despite low EPS using their fat reserves. Last final account showa Rs: 3.2 billion retained earnings!  
First Guy wrote:
Ethical Trader wrote:Thanks Al for the analysis. My comment on 15% DY is based on their ability to maintain the current dividend level. You presume that might be lesser than now. Its a good viewpoint to look at seriously.

15% is based on past dividends. They can't pay same amount when earning less. Yield will drop in future due to lower dividends.

Retained earnings mean nothing in this case. They need to have the cash to pay. If you look at the past, cash generation is almost similar to profits and hence the dividend lose to all the profits. A company like this is not going to pay more than what they earn. If you are going to make a decision based on simply the amount of past dividends, I like to warn against that.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:51 am

Thanks. You have a point here.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:32 pm

Here is the ten year summary given in the last annual report. The point I made above is supported by the continuous increase in dividend payment despite low PE last year.
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They continued to increase the dividend payment despite low PE last year. As you said they might maintain the same if cash is available. Some companies pay script dividend using reserves when short of cash.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Mon May 21, 2018 10:20 am

Icon of Strength -2017

Chevron Lubricants have reached a maturity stage in their business and higher dividend payout is a common factor among matured businesses.

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Mon May 21, 2018 10:21 am

EPS shows a drastic decline in 2017

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Mon May 21, 2018 10:22 am

PE ratio of LLUB

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Tue May 22, 2018 9:40 pm

Thanks.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by sashimaal on Wed May 23, 2018 7:34 pm

Sri Lanka Chevron unit says CEO resigned yesterday
May 23, 2018 12:24 PM GMT+0530 | 0 Comment(s)

ECONOMYNEXT - Chevron Lubricants Lanka Plc said Kishu Gomes, its long-serving chief executive had resigned yesterday, and has been replaced by an acting head.

Rochana Kauf, general manager of Chevron lubricants for Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam has been appointed acting chief executive, the firm said in a stock exchange filing.

The firm said Gomes had resigned "with immediate effect from 22 May," without elaborating.

Once a monopoly backed by government restriction on imports and then domestic packing, the firm had lost market share after consumer freedoms were expanded.

The firm had been lobbying against giving more freedoms to customers as the government planned to issue more import licences to give freedom to citizens.

The firms stock has taken a beating in the stock market in recent months.

The stock was quoted at 88.50 in intra-day trade on May 23, down from 167 rupees at the end of June 2017. (Colombo/May23/2018)
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:12 am

LLUB in decline as CEO Kishu Gomes exits
     _ LBO news

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:26 am

A number of reasons affected its price decline. Not just the liberalization of the trade which eroded their market share due to new competitors. Liberalization was the first reason for beginning of the decline.

Other notable reasons are; (1) price escalations of source material abroad and on top of it the price escalation locally due to the weakening of the rupee which made tings worst. (2) Having to cut prices to meet sever competition from new players. (3) Lack of a regulatory legal procedures to control inferior/fake products at cheaper prices. (4) Adverse weather conditions prevailed throughout the last few years reducing the demand for lubricants as locals do not service their vehicles during the rainy season. (5) Bulk of our vehicle fleet being motor cycles & three wheelers which always look for cheaper lubricants.

Their annual report says stringent measures are being taken to arrest the situation amidst sever competition.

sashimaal wrote:Sri Lanka Chevron unit says CEO resigned yesterday
May 23, 2018 12:24 PM GMT+0530 | 0 Comment(s)

ECONOMYNEXT - Chevron Lubricants Lanka Plc said Kishu Gomes, its long-serving chief executive had resigned yesterday, and has been replaced by an acting head.

Rochana Kauf, general manager of Chevron lubricants for Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam has been appointed acting chief executive, the firm said in a stock exchange filing.

The firm said Gomes had resigned "with immediate effect from 22 May," without elaborating.

Once a monopoly backed by government restriction on imports and then domestic packing, the firm had lost market share after consumer freedoms were expanded.

The firm had been lobbying against giving more freedoms to customers as the government planned to issue more import licences to give freedom to citizens.

The firms stock has taken a beating in the stock market in recent months.

The stock was quoted at 88.50 in intra-day trade on May 23, down from 167 rupees at the end of June 2017. (Colombo/May23/2018)
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:28 am

YK, this can be a co-incident or price decline may have prompted him to quit prior to a worst decline as foreigners are still in the selling mood of this share.
yellow knife wrote:LLUB in decline as CEO Kishu Gomes exits
     _ LBO news
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:28 am

Agreed ET

What ever it is a well established company will face challenges and move ahead. Yet the facts beyond their control affect to their performance.

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:47 am

Their Chairman also retired recently while the price was declining. One other major reason for price decline was sub-division of the share in April 2016 when the price was around Rs: 330/=. After the sub-division, the price settled around around half its going price Rs:170/= which is natural. Then the other issues discussed took prominence prompting heavy selling. Unless the government keep control over cheap substandard products recovery will be very slow.
yellow knife wrote:Agreed ET

What ever it is a well established company will face challenges and move ahead. Yet the facts beyond their control affect to their performance.
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