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LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:39 am

Despite availability of high cost IT facilities authorities just sleep on it. Instead, they want us to report matters to them.
කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:Yesterday morning when it started to move, I was wondering who got the smell of the dividend first.
Authorities should investigate those who have bought shares early in the day to see if any insider trading is involved.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:02 am

See the order book today. Its very weak. Many bids are below Rs:116/=
[img][You must be registered and logged in to see this link.][/img]
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by guruji on Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:02 pm

After xd date this will slide more ,don't know wts to do with losses

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:09 pm

Guruji, don't worry. Even at the current price level, its DY is over 15%! More than the FD rates, provided they continue to pay dividends at this rate! Watch the decline, & Just average down carefully in small quantities. Don't jump in big.
guruji wrote:  After xd date this will slide more ,don't know wts to do with losses
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by poor boy on Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:22 pm

this year the eps will be around 11 rupees. still they can continue to pay a good dividend .dividend yield 10 percent is fine. yesterday i didnt smell a dividend but i bought few thousand shares bcz i thought this is an opportunity .i think 109 rupees is in the oversold region. when ioc came in to operation people got panicked and sold at cheap but we saw how this share rewarded its shareholders. i think below 120 is an opportunity.

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by CK on Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:01 pm

My broker said there is a pushing from a broker firm (don't want to gv the name as this is not confirmed ). So there can be some trading opportunities, but be careful of dumping their qty.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by guruji on Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:08 pm

Thanks ethical trader

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by The Alchemist on Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:26 pm

after split sometime back, price adjusted to rs 150 and then went up to around rs 180. since earnings have come down approx 30 % last 2 q's, if you take split adjusted rs 150 and minus 30 %, it comes to rs 105. if earnings are going to be rs 11-12 per share and dividend is rs 10, then eps 8-9 and div yield 10 % makes fair value around 100-105. especially if lubs market share is shrinking, taxes, competition and future earnings is unsure.  
what do you think ?

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by malanp on Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:41 pm

malanp wrote:People who sold at 158 levels are the winners.

I got two negative rep for writing this..

People who sold at 158 levels are the real winners..

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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:36 am

Thanks Al for the analysis. My comment on 15% DY is based on their ability to maintain the current dividend level. You presume that might be lesser than now. Its a good viewpoint to look at seriously.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by First Guy on Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:21 pm

Ethical Trader wrote:Thanks Al for the analysis. My comment on 15% DY is based on their ability to maintain the current dividend level. You presume that might be lesser than now. Its a good viewpoint to look at seriously.

15% is based on past dividends. They can't pay same amount when earning less. Yield will drop in future due to lower dividends.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:36 am

Correct but there are some companies who maintain the same dividend level despite low EPS using their fat reserves. Last final account showa Rs: 3.2 billion retained earnings!  
First Guy wrote:
Ethical Trader wrote:Thanks Al for the analysis. My comment on 15% DY is based on their ability to maintain the current dividend level. You presume that might be lesser than now. Its a good viewpoint to look at seriously.

15% is based on past dividends. They can't pay same amount when earning less. Yield will drop in future due to lower dividends.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by First Guy on Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:45 pm

Ethical Trader wrote:Correct but there are some companies who maintain the same dividend level despite low EPS using their fat reserves. Last final account showa Rs: 3.2 billion retained earnings!  
First Guy wrote:
Ethical Trader wrote:Thanks Al for the analysis. My comment on 15% DY is based on their ability to maintain the current dividend level. You presume that might be lesser than now. Its a good viewpoint to look at seriously.

15% is based on past dividends. They can't pay same amount when earning less. Yield will drop in future due to lower dividends.

Retained earnings mean nothing in this case. They need to have the cash to pay. If you look at the past, cash generation is almost similar to profits and hence the dividend lose to all the profits. A company like this is not going to pay more than what they earn. If you are going to make a decision based on simply the amount of past dividends, I like to warn against that.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:51 am

Thanks. You have a point here.
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Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:32 pm

Here is the ten year summary given in the last annual report. The point I made above is supported by the continuous increase in dividend payment despite low PE last year.
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They continued to increase the dividend payment despite low PE last year. As you said they might maintain the same if cash is available. Some companies pay script dividend using reserves when short of cash.
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