The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans
Search
 
 

Display results as :
 


Rechercher Advanced Search

Latest topics
» ලංකාවේ සංචාරය නිසා බ්‍රිතාන්‍ය මන්ත්‍රීට පාර්ලිමේන්තු තහනමක්
Today at 6:09 pm by Ethical Trader

» Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
Today at 6:06 pm by Ethical Trader

» අනං මනං! #/+?.<>
Today at 2:31 am by Yin-Yang

» Happy Birthday
Yesterday at 5:37 pm by pathfinder

» Dividend Announcement
Fri Jul 20, 2018 2:03 am by nihal123

» සදහම් හඩ
Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:53 am by Ethical Trader

»  Woman finds frog parts in her packet of 'kottu'
Tue Jul 17, 2018 5:21 pm by Ethical Trader

» Debenture issues
Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:34 pm by Danidu

» Quick Checklist for Selecting a Stock
Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:42 am by slstock

» Hello and CSE ?
Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:05 am by slstock

» Films - To Watch List
Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:15 am by yellow knife

» කොටස් වෙළෙඳපොළේ ආයෝජනයේ දී දේශපාලන සබඳතා අනාවරණය අනිවාර්යයි
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:02 pm by spw19721

» ගුහාවේ සිරවී සිටින දරුවන් පිටතට ගෙන්න මාස 04 ක් ගතවෙන ලකුණු
Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:43 am by serene

» කොළඹ කොටස් තවමත් අවුරුදු 8 කට කලින් තිබුණු තැනමයි
Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:37 am by serene

» 2018 ජූනි මාසයේ ඩොලර් මිලියන 434.53 කින් දී සංචිත වැඩි වුණේ මෙහෙමයි
Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:00 pm by Ethical Trader

» නිවාඩුවට රට යනවාටත් බද්දක්. සියලු වාහන හිමියන් බදු ගෙවිය යුතුයි – දේශීය ආදායම් කොමසාරිස්
Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:49 pm by Ethical Trader

» අටවන වරටත් ශ‍්‍රී ලංකාවේ හොඳම බැංකුව ලෙස ෆයිනෑන්ස් ඒෂියා කොමර්ෂල් බැංකුව තෝරාගනී July, 7, 2018
Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:53 am by nihal123

» ETI මිල දී ගන්නේ සිංගප්පූරු – ශ්‍රී ලංකා හවුල් සමාගමක්
Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:57 am by serene

» සුළු හා මධ්‍ය පරිමාණ ව්‍යවසායකයින් වෙනුවෙන් කොළඹ කොටස් වෙළෙඳපොළේ EMPOWER පුවරුව දියත් කෙරේ
Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:26 pm by Ethical Trader

» Sri raises fuel prices, future revisions weekly
Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:35 pm by Ethical Trader

» Sri Lanka holds rates, amid external jitters
Fri Jul 06, 2018 10:35 am by Ethical Trader

» Sri Lanka rupee weakens, stocks gain 1.22-pct
Fri Jul 06, 2018 10:34 am by Ethical Trader

» Sri Lanka's SMEs get chance to raise equity on liberalized board
Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:07 am by The Invisible

» Yahoo බිඳ වැටෙයි
Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:42 pm by Ethical Trader

» මුල් මාස 06 දී ලක්ෂ 11 ½ ක සංචාරකයින් ඇවිත්
Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:41 pm by Ethical Trader

» ධම්මික ශ්‍රී ලංකාවේ මුල් වරට Artificial Intelligence යොදා ගත් අධ්‍යක්ෂ මණ්ඩල රැස්වීමක් කැඳවයි
Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:01 am by serene

» තව වසර 3 කින් කොළඹ ඒක පුද්ගල ආදායම ඩොලර් 12,650 යි
Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:39 pm by Ethical Trader

» රාජපක්ෂ ආධාරකරුවන් ශ්‍රී ලංකාවේ මාධ්‍යවේදීන් බියවැද්දීම වැරදියි - New York Times
Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:32 pm by Ethical Trader

» කොමර්ෂල් බැංකුවට නව කළමනාකාර අධ්‍යක්ෂවරයෙකු සහ ප‍්‍රධාන මෙහෙයුම් නිලධාරියෙකු පත්කෙරේ
Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:27 pm by Ethical Trader

» Sri Lanka's ETI Finance able to settle small depositors if liquidated
Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:30 pm by Ethical Trader

» Cartoon of the day...
Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:10 pm by pee ratio

» උදයංග වීරතුංගට "ස්වේච්ඡාවෙන් ගමන් යන්න බැහැ"
Fri Jun 29, 2018 5:19 pm by Ethical Trader

» Sri Lanka s state hotel sales to go ahead next month: Finance Minister
Fri Jun 29, 2018 5:14 pm by Ethical Trader

» මාස 02 කදී කොටස් වෙළෙඳපොළ සියයට 4 කින් කඩා වැටිලා
Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:59 pm by Ethical Trader

» කොටස් වෙළෙඳපොළේ ආයෝජන ඉවත් කර ගැනීමට ජාතික ඉතිරිකිරීමේ බැංකුව යෝජනා කැඳවයි
Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:14 am by Ethical Trader

» සුරන්ගනීට මාලු ගෙනාවා - FIFA - Russia - 2018
Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:29 am by Ethical Trader

» Enterprise Sri Lanka to give extra credit support for women, disabled soldiers
Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:42 pm by sashimaal

» HUNA.N0000
Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:42 am by pjrngroup

» 2018 මැයි මස උද්ධමනය සියයට 2.1 ක් දක්වා ඉහළට
Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:31 am by Ethical Trader

» Laughter the Best Medicine
Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:11 pm by nihal123

» Sri Lanka is recovering, Central Bank threat looms: Bellwether
Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:20 am by The Invisible

» Sri Lanka's new forex law gets IMF thumps up
Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:16 am by The Invisible

» EU slaps tariffs on US as trade war erupts
Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:14 am by The Invisible

» Top monk asks Sri Lanka’s ex-defence chief to return as ‘Hitler’
Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:12 am by The Invisible

» May inflation at 2.1%
Fri Jun 22, 2018 2:06 am by sashimaal

»  මෙරට විශාලම ආයෝජනය වන හම්බන්තොට වරායේ අවසන් ආයෝජන මුදල වරාය අතට බාර දෙයි
Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:59 pm by Ethical Trader

» CCS.N0000 ( Ceylon Cold Stores)
Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:56 pm by Ethical Trader

» HHL.N0000 ( Hemas Holdings PLC)
Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:48 pm by Ethical Trader

» රුපියල තවදුරටත් පාවීමට ඉඩහැරිය යුතුයි - ජාත්‍යන්තර මූල්‍ය අරමුදල
Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:46 am by serene

» රජයේ සුරැකුම්වලින් රුපියල් බිලියන 2.7 ක විදෙස් ආයෝජන සතියක් තුළ දී ඉවතට
Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:11 am by serene

July 2018
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
293031    

Calendar Calendar

Disclaimer


Information posted in this forum are entirely of the respective members' personal views. The views posted on this open online forum of contributors do not constitute a recommendation buy or sell. The site nor the connected parties will be responsible for the posts posted on the forum and will take best possible action to remove any unlawful or inappropriate posts.
All rights to articles of value authored by members posted on the forum belong to the respective authors. Re-using without the consent of the authors is prohibited. Due credit with links to original source should be given when quoting content from the forum.
This is an educational portal and not one that gives recommendations. Please obtain investment advises from a Registered Investment Advisor through a stock broker

LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Page 1 of 6 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Go down

LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Mon Mar 21, 2016 3:44 pm

Let me first refer Power Inc, of David Rothkopf from page 210.

" John D. Rokefeller , son of a snake oil saleman from upstate New York was all business. He founded Standard Oil. Standard Oil Ohio was established in 1870. By 1878  the company account for 33 million barrels of America's 36 million barrel refining capacity. In 1895 , Standard's buying arm declared that from then , it would unilaterally decide the price of American crude .

Later President elected by the people of US, McKinley, dealt with the monopolies in a very tough manner. He played a major role to pass Anti-Trust act.  President was assassinated and he was replaced by then the Vice President Theodore Roosevelt.

Roosevelt forced to use and 1890 piece of legislation called Sherman Antitrust Act to hammer Standard Oil. Standard Oil was dissolved. Rockefeller's empire appeared to be dead and defeated.  The parent company was broken into seven new companies; Standard Oil of New York, Standard Oil of California, Standard Oil of Ohio, Standard Oil of Indiana, Continental Oil , and Atlantic.

Standard Oil of New Jersey became Exxon. Standard Oil of New York became Mobil. The California company became Chevron, the ninth largest company in the world in 2010. It is also worth noting that Exxon Mobil alone has sales roughly equivalent to the GDP of Sweden.

So we are going to talk about the operations of Chevron the 9th largest company in the world.

yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5868
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Mon Mar 21, 2016 3:46 pm

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Chevron has recorded a profit above Rs 3 Billion.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5868
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Mon Mar 21, 2016 3:51 pm

EPS of the company has been  growing faster than many companies.


[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5868
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Mon Mar 21, 2016 3:53 pm

PE ratio felt below 10 in 2007

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5868
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Mon Mar 21, 2016 3:54 pm

We often look at 1.5 figure as an ideal value to think as a fair value of a share. There are few companies where its Market Value is not moving to such ideals. LLUB is one such.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5868
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Mon Mar 21, 2016 3:55 pm

Not all companies provide Growing Dividends. LLUB is a good dividend grower.


[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5868
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Mon Mar 21, 2016 4:01 pm

Among the Dividend growing companies evaluated so far, LLUB is outstanding


[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5868
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Mon Mar 21, 2016 4:09 pm

LLUB is proud of 14 years of safety record. Company is focused on improving safety in work place.

Even though EPS was growing company faced many challenges.

1. Recorded drop of Institutional sales. This is because power generation sector as the source of energy mix to the national grid varied with less lubricant intensive coal power and hydro power as opposed to lubricant intensive thermal power in comparative period of last year. A fully functional Norochcholai power plant and higher rainfall in hydro catchment areas led the shift towards  coal and hydro power.

2. Phasing out of many large scale public infrastructure projects pending reassessment.

yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5868
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Mon Mar 21, 2016 4:15 pm

3. In addition to that another threat was mentioned in 2016 budget proposal for LLUB.

" We have concerns about the 2016 Budget proposals in respect of the lubricant industry. The government's proposal to open up the lubricant market and remove lubricants from the BOI negative list will affect all existing players. The market may be at risk of further fragmentation with 13 players and possibly more competing for a share of the 54 mn liter market in a backdrop of sluggish industry growth. "

 p.8 Annual report 2015

yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5868
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Mon Mar 21, 2016 4:23 pm

These Multi National Companies know how to turn the threats into opportunities.

Winning Strategies of 2015

1. Promoting Havoline Eco and other brands for Hybrid and new vehicles.

2. Expanding sales outlets. The more area you cover the more sales you get is known as Production Concept in theory of marketing.

3. Reinforcing advertising. MNCs often advertise heavily and The more Ads you do the More sales you get is Sales Concept in theory of Marketing.

4. Well managed inventories to get the advantage of falling raw material prices. The drop of raw material prices albeit not to the same proportion to the crude oil.

5. Strengthening export markets and that is Bangladesh and Maldives.

6. Operational efficiency. Warehouse was co-located at the plant premises thus reducing transportation cost.

7. Training and developing employees.

yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5868
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Mon Mar 21, 2016 4:28 pm

My average of this Share is Rs 182. Shares of MNCs if entered at right price is worth holding. MNCs are often well managed and good at paying dividends.

yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5868
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Expert on Mon Mar 21, 2016 5:20 pm

Thanks for the analysis YK. Good work!
avatar
Expert

Posts : 124
Join date : 2014-03-03

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by CubedSol on Mon Mar 21, 2016 5:21 pm

WoW !

MNCs, CHILDREN & Foreign Owned companies r mostly well managed & r better in dividends ryt ?

But MNCs have another advantage... The influence they have Wink
avatar
CubedSol

Posts : 107
Join date : 2016-02-06
Age : 30

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by First Guy on Tue Mar 22, 2016 7:53 am

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
avatar
First Guy

Posts : 2533
Join date : 2014-02-22

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by CubedSol on Wed Mar 23, 2016 6:26 am

YK : If you don't mind me asking, when did you enter LLUB ?
avatar
CubedSol

Posts : 107
Join date : 2016-02-06
Age : 30

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:03 am

2011 and I know your second question on that...

Opportunity Cost... that is a concept I never had a look at.. All accountants and economists are worried about Opportunity Cost..

My concept is Delayed Gratification....

yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5868
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by CubedSol on Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:07 am

:-P

I was never going to ask the second question Wink

Because for better or worse I too am NOT much concerned about opportunity cost.

Very Happy
avatar
CubedSol

Posts : 107
Join date : 2016-02-06
Age : 30

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by First Guy on Thu May 05, 2016 7:31 am

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Good performance in March 2016 quarter

P/E - 12.2x
avatar
First Guy

Posts : 2533
Join date : 2014-02-22

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Thu May 05, 2016 7:55 am

YK, its a superb presentation. Thanks for your professional approach. I presume there may be many who wants to learn presentation skills from you.

I need you to make just one minor clarification inserted to make it more useful for the local consumption. You started with US company data & then on local company which is more relevant to us.

?Can you kindly state which data are US & which are local with the chart itself. FG appears to be posting local company data.

Thanks again for your nice presentation. Continue the good work.
avatar
Ethical Trader
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 3978
Join date : 2014-02-28

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by yellow knife on Thu May 05, 2016 8:04 am

Only the first slice is about US

yellow knife
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 5868
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by dhanurrox on Thu May 05, 2016 9:14 am

LLUB people were concerned yet they delivered.

dhanurrox

Posts : 408
Join date : 2014-03-27

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Dileepa on Thu May 05, 2016 1:25 pm

EPS up by 33% (Rs.8.22)
Company already paid a dividend of Rs.6/= for the 1Q
With this earnings growth, we can safely expect another Rs.21/= for the year.
That is impressive 8% dividend yield at current market price(27/340)

Also 20% increase in NAV is noteworthy.
This is mainly due to inventories (up by 23%).
Inventory will provide a hedge against base oil price fluctuations.

Any guess about the price after split?
Small foreign selling is bit worrying,
but I think price will settle around Rs.180/= after split.

Dileepa
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 76
Join date : 2014-02-28

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Thu May 05, 2016 3:05 pm

Hi Dileepa, after a long time. Thanks for cmmenst.
avatar
Ethical Trader
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 3978
Join date : 2014-02-28

Back to top Go down

Re: LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)

Post by Ethical Trader on Thu May 05, 2016 3:06 pm

yellow knife wrote:Only the first slice is about US
Thanks.
avatar
Ethical Trader
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 3978
Join date : 2014-02-28

Back to top Go down

What Next ?

Post by HUNTER on Thu May 05, 2016 8:13 pm

Another good thread YK.

LLUB has not been in my watch-list for a long time, due to my criteria of valuation. But now it has come to some 'visible' range.

LLUB has been a highly respected counter from my end due to consistent business and market performances alike. Specially, as a counter which did not fall during market drop in 2011~2012.

If we look at how LLUB has moved in the market during past 10 years, we can clearly identify two price channels; One before 2009 and another after 2010.

Until 2009, the price has gained approximately 15% a year. After the upward breakout near the end of 2009, we can observe the price has been appreciating about 20% a year (from 2010).

LLUB earnings have been very consistent. The dividend payouts have also been very consistent and growing with the earnings.

Therefore, it is not unacceptable to assume that the market price growth has been fueled mainly by the earnings growth.

If so, it is equally acceptable to assume, the price growth should be comparably proportional to the earnings growth.

However, while the price has been appreciating at a rate of 20%, business has been growing only at a rate of around 15% (according to my calculations).

However, based on our assumptions, we cannot expect a business growth of 15% to justify a price growth of 20%.

Therefore, in the long run, the market will ultimately react to negate the divergence at some point.

Considering the above, what I expect is, the market will move sideways for some more time until the earnings catch up with the past price movements and then resume the long term uptrend.

So, what I expect during next 1~2 years, is a sideways movement between 280/-~430/- (Or an equivalent range after the subdivision).

On a positive tone, by any chance, if price drops any further, it will a very good level to buy for some medium term trading opportunities.

As a swing trader, I am ready to dip in.

The chart below summarizes my story.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
avatar
HUNTER
Top contributor
Top contributor

Posts : 1654
Join date : 2014-07-14

Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 6 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum