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The ARIMA Model Prediction that wenting wrong

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The ARIMA Model Prediction that wenting wrong

Post by pee ratio on Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:30 pm


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Re: The ARIMA Model Prediction that wenting wrong

Post by pee ratio on Tue Jan 13, 2015 3:52 pm

'Even Nostradamus got things wrong', says astrologer who advised Sri Lanka's president to call election

Defeated president Mahinda Rajapaksa was told by his personal astrologer, Sumanadasa Abeygunawardena, to hold an early poll

Agence France-Presse

theguardian.com, Tuesday 13 January 2015 05.13 GMT

The personal astrologer of deposed president Mahinda Rajapaksa, Sumanadasa Abeygunawardena, 63, counselled that this week was a good time for election success.
The personal astrologer of deposed president Mahinda Rajapaksa, Sumanadasa Abeygunawardena, 63, counselled that this week was a good time for election success. Photograph: STR/AFP/Getty Images
As a defeated Mahinda Rajapaksa slunk out of Sri Lanka’s presidential palace, the astrologer who counselled him to call a disastrous early election was gloomily packing his bags on the other side of town.

“Not all of Nostradamus’ predictions have come true either,” said Sumanadasa Abeygunawardena as he reflected both on the fate of his vanquished boss and his own reputation as a seer.

“There was only so much I could do to help him win, maybe 5%. But you must have luck to be the president.”

The 63-year-old Abeygunawardena has been avoiding the media since last Thursday’s election, his reputation having taken a pounding from veteran leader Rajapaksa’s defeat to his rival Maithripala Sirisena.

During his increasingly authoritarian rule, the president became hugely reliant on his astrologer’s counsel and even timed the announcement of the snap election after consulting Abeygunawardena.

On voting day, Rajapakse appeared oblivious to his impending demise by declaring he was headed for “a resounding victory”.

While the outcome spelt the end of Rajapaksa’s decade in power, it was also a disaster for Abeygunawardena who had been lavishly rewarded by the man he calls “Our Sir” after advising him for 32 years.

In an interview with AFP, the normally ebullient Abeygunawardena admitted he was trying to keep a low profile for the moment, while confident that the setback would not lead all his followers to desert him.

“I am avoiding talking to people, especially the media, but I have a big following and they will not abandon me,” he said in a phone interview from his home in the coastal city of Galle.

Abeygunawardena said he had tried to console Rajapaksa after the outcome became clear in the early hours of Friday, before his old boss made his pre-dawn departure from his official residence in Colombo.

As Rajapakse made his exit, Abeygunawardena had to hand in the keys to a grace-and-favour bungalow in another part of the city. He also lost his limousine, chauffeur and vacated his seat on the board of a state-run bank.

Back in Galle, Abeygunawardena tried to put a brave face on his demise, insisting that he always knew Rajapaksa was doomed to lose – but didn’t have the heart to tell him.

“If I did not tell him he was going to win, he would have been psychologically shattered. His defeat would have been much worse,” he said, saying the outcome had been written in the stars.

“In this case, the opponent’s horoscope is more powerful than that of Our Sir.”

Such foreboding was not in evidence at 1:04pm on November 20 when Rajapaksa signed the decree for an election after Abeygunawardena had advised that it was a particularly auspicious moment.

The election did not have to be held for another two years although conventional wisdom at the time was that Rajapaksa was likely to cruise to victory over a divided opposition.

But Rajapakse was blindsided by his then health minister Sirisena’s sudden defection to the ranks of the combined opposition, only hours after the two men dined together.

Abeygunawardena became tearful when pressed on the outcome, saying he carried out traditional rituals to ensure Rajapaksa voted at the right time while looking towards the chosen direction to ensure victory.

Even though he claims to also be a friend of Sirisena, Abeygunawardena admitted that he had not seen the defection coming.

If Abeygunawardena did indeed foresee Rajapaksa’s defeat, his reluctance to break the bad news might have stemmed from the fate of one of his colleagues who was arrested and thrown in jail in 2009 after publicly predicting that the president would lose the following year’s election.

Abeygunawardena is swift to claim credit for predicting Rajapaksa’s victories in both the 2005 and 2010 elections but says no astrologer can ever be 100% right, even the 16th century French seer Nostradamus.

“It is just not possible, otherwise I could just pay the 75,000 rupees ($570) deposit to run for president as an independent and go on to win the presidency,” he said. “You have to give us at least a 5% margin of error.”

And Abeygunawardena denied simply telling Rajapaksa what he wanted to hear, claiming that he had warned him not to accept the chair in office of the 53-member Commonwealth whose summit he hosted in Colombo in 2013.

The last chairman before Rajapaksa was Julia Gillard who was unseated as Australia’s premier after hosting the same event in 2011.

“That office is a crown with thorns. I told him not to take it,” Abeygunawardena said. “See what happened to Gillard? The same thing happened to Our Sir.”

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Re: The ARIMA Model Prediction that wenting wrong

Post by jiggysaurus on Tue Jan 13, 2015 4:00 pm

pee ratio wrote:

Back in Galle, Abeygunawardena tried to put a brave face on his demise, insisting that he always knew Rajapaksa was doomed to lose – but didn’t have the heart to tell him.

“If I did not tell him he was going to win, he would have been psychologically shattered. His defeat would have been much worse,” he said, saying the outcome had been written in the stars.


How the power of the ARIMA model?
It always knew but didn't tell. Defa the astrology man would make a powerful charting analyst for the stock market.

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Re: The ARIMA Model Prediction that wenting wrong

Post by pee ratio on Tue Jan 13, 2015 4:18 pm

BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS

President's horror-scope reader NO STAR DAMN US, and our darling GILmarting friend GMNet are getting set to marry. cere-money in galle loo. it is to be a marriage of inconvenience. only to perfect the flawed ARIMA model.
they are soliciting help from our handsome freind in aboo-dhobi, who is expert in Fibbing to his Achhi.

then they opening stock brokerering companay. name will be NO STAR DAMN US, ALL FIBS & JILMART PLC.  

pls watch this space for more broking news eh breaking news.

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Re: The ARIMA Model Prediction that wenting wrong

Post by smallville on Tue Jan 13, 2015 5:51 pm

Good thing we didnt question horror-scope reader NO STAR DAMN US's ARIMA model this time.. otherwise then president would've shutdown this forum too ...

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Re: The ARIMA Model Prediction that wenting wrong

Post by malanp on Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:04 am


MR is #1 gon haraka to have faith in this person..He did everything at auspicious time, and everything went wrong..


MR will have a special place in our society, next to Andaree..

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Re: The ARIMA Model Prediction that wenting wrong

Post by balapas on Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:10 am

At SLEF they had a poll for the election. On the day before election when I checked MR was leading but few days back when I looked at the site MS had a big lead. GMnet has reduced votes to MS using admin settings and said those who had voted can remove their vote.

So you see what kind of low lives run that forum.

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