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Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

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Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by HAL9000 on Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:12 pm

September quarter is the best period for mini-hydro stocks. looking at the past few years, this sector has clearly a seasonal pattern in stock prices. CT brokers recommend VPEL and VLL from this sector. VPEL is the clear leader in the sector with largest capacity,powerful management,and good dividend payout policy and minimal debt. Their earnings pattern also stable for last few years.
in addition to VPEL and VLL I think HPFL too is attractive specially when considering their NAV. HPFL has not fully utilized their IPO money yet, though their earnings have rottened during last few quarters. HPFL gave a dividend of 50 cents in the past as I can remember. This is very attractive considering the current market price, once touched Rs 20 with Doctors buying.

PAP- I guess there is nothing much to talk about

Ongoing penny stock rally will also give some boost to this sector  because many of them are penny stocks.

I guess senior members of the forum will give better insight for this sector, esp Chinwi.

We should note that along with the market bull run, mini-hydro stocks have not showed any significant movement so far, esp VPEL. We saw some collection going on for HPFL today
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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by sashimaal on Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:20 pm

VPEL has not run for ages. Unfortunately the PE ratio is not low.

Let's see atleast in this bull run...along with the dividend announcement Smile
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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by First Guy on Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:47 pm

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VPEL and VLL are my picks as well but more VLL than VPEL.

VPEL is the largest and you can be sure of a good dividend yield at current prices but what about growth? Seem to have matured with no projects in progress (correct me if wrong)

VLL is trading at a premium compared to VPEL but we can expect some growth in revenues (and profits) in coming quarters/years due to ongoing projects (check cashflow and balance sheet)
VLL had its peak around 11 if I remember correct where directors were buying at 7+ and then came down to 3.50/- after rights announcements. Directors again collected around 3.50/3.60 for a long time and then jumped to 4.70-5.00 where collection is again going on.

I hold both.
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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by sashimaal on Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:53 pm

First Guy wrote:
VPEL is the largest and you can be sure of a good dividend yield at current prices but what about growth? Seem to have matured with no projects in progress (correct me if wrong)

Yes FG, i got into VPEL around Rs 2.10 around their IPO time.

Went to Rs 13 odd in 2010 and now Rs 5.90 (unfortunately i was out of CSE when the market peaked in 2010)
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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by chinwi on Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:30 am

HAL2009 wrote:I think HPFL too is attractive specially when considering their NAV. HPFL has not fully utilized their IPO money yet, though their earnings have rottened during last few quarters. HPFL gave a dividend of 50 cents in the past as I can remember. This is very attractive considering the current market price, once touched Rs 20 with Doctors buying.


Yes. HPFL is bit different to others when we consider it as an investment. (CSE)

It's is still building its power houses - dealyed- and until they get linked to the grid, HPFL will not show its real value.

It may reach 15 or above if all the generators perform in their full capacity probably next year. At the moment we have to depend on the designs, no one can tell about real outcome of the generators.

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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by seek on Fri Aug 29, 2014 7:48 am

Has anyone studied MEL in depath?




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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by chinwi on Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:53 am

seek wrote:Has anyone studied MEL in depath?

A bit few months ago. Not interested.
Their finance income was the main contributor for the bottom line than operational profits.
With the easing of interest rates that luxury is no more.

2012/13 - OppProfit 17 million, Financial Income 40million
2013/14 - Opp +10million , FI 22 Million
2014/15 - 1st Qtr Opp -10 million, FI 4.5m

MEL is a main supplier of electricity generators to various industries. If they get a big job they may show profits.

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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by seek on Wed Sep 03, 2014 7:13 pm

MEL got active today Smile

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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by First Guy on Fri Dec 26, 2014 3:20 pm

I would like to re-ignite this discussion. I'm looking at VPEL, VLL and HPFL all three I'm holding different quantities.
They are in different stages with VPEL rather matured and paying out good dividends, VLL catching up with its new plants and few more to be completed and HPFL lagging a bit.

March was a bad quarter for all of them due to the prevailing weather while the September quarter was a 'bumper harvest'. Looking at the present weather pattern, we can expect similar if not better results for December as well as March 2015 quarters.

If VPEL repeats 0.50/- EPS with the expected dividend, VPEL cannot stay anywhere near this price.

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Just to see how prices have progressed, check the table in below thread

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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by jiggysaurus on Fri Dec 26, 2014 3:36 pm

First Guy wrote:I would like to re-ignite this discussion. I'm looking at VPEL, VLL and HPFL all three I'm holding different quantities.


HPWR should also be very powerful since the usual gilmarting will be done once the mandatory offer is over.

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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by smallville on Tue Feb 10, 2015 8:47 pm

jiggysaurus wrote:
First Guy wrote:I would like to re-ignite this discussion. I'm looking at VPEL, VLL and HPFL all three I'm holding different quantities.


HPWR should also be very powerful since the usual gilmarting will be done once the mandatory offer is over.

Why no run yet after manda?

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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by jiggysaurus on Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:01 pm

smallville wrote:

Why no run yet after manda?

Not enough shares got sucked up by the manda

But order book seems set up for gilmarts

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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by First Guy on Sun Mar 29, 2015 10:06 pm

March quarter shouldn't be as good as last quarter.

VPEL trading around 8-8.20
VLL trading around 6.70-6.80 holding strong during these times
HPFL has been edging down last at 6.10
HPWR holding string around 18-19
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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by chutiputha on Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:45 am

Thank U FG,I think VPEL drop further.

First Guy wrote:March quarter shouldn't be as good as last quarter.

VPEL trading around 8-8.20
VLL trading around 6.70-6.80 holding strong during these times
HPFL has been edging down last at 6.10
HPWR holding string around 18-19
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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by wagonr on Fri May 01, 2015 5:31 pm

chutiputha wrote:Thank U FG,I think VPEL drop further.

First Guy wrote:March quarter shouldn't be as good as last quarter.

VPEL trading around 8-8.20
VLL trading around 6.70-6.80 holding strong during these times
HPFL has been edging down last at 6.10
HPWR holding string around 18-19

VPEL is now trading at 9.20
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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by First Guy on Thu May 14, 2015 7:42 am

First results out with dividend and it's PAP. Can you take  guess on others? Wink HPWR is making good moves every few days.

My guess is around 0.01/- EPS for VPEL, around 0.15/- for VLL and 0.20/- for HPFL
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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Thu May 14, 2015 8:03 am

With good amount of rain falling recently, it is something worth to look at seriously.
First Guy wrote:First results out with dividend and it's PAP. Can you take  guess on others? Wink HPWR is making good moves every few days.
My guess is around 0.01/- EPS for VPEL, around 0.15/- for VLL and 0.20/- for HPFL
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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by slstock on Thu May 14, 2015 8:04 am

Pap must have made some profits in MArch to give this hefty dividend.

How was the rain situation in Jan to March in SL overall?

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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Thu May 14, 2015 8:08 am

Out of patterns (bad for agriculture) but good amounts and that is all what hydropower needs.
slstock wrote:How was the rain situation in Jan to March in SL?
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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by First Guy on Thu May 14, 2015 8:15 am

slstock wrote:Pap must have made some profits in MArch to give this hefty dividend.

How was the rain situation in Jan to March in SL overall?

PAP already had 0.30/- by 9months. They are known for high payouts. Good chunk owned by VLL as well.

VPEL production can be obtained from their website for every month.

One of the projects hasn't been producing much (not sure where it is located, didn't check)
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Erathna project compensates for April. Guess that's why the interest as well.
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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by slstock on Thu May 14, 2015 8:23 am

PAP:

No I meantm last march was only Rs0.04. They gave Rs 0.3 dividend. If 9 months is 0.3 this march must have some improvement .

Else dividend payout is nearly 95%!


VPEL

has some benefits to come but am not sure about March results.



First Guy wrote:
slstock wrote:Pap must have made some profits in MArch to give this hefty dividend.

How was the rain situation in Jan to March in SL overall?

PAP already had 0.30/- by 9months. They are known for high payouts. Good chunk owned by VLL as well.

VPEL production can be obtained from their website for every month.

One of the projects hasn't been producing much (not sure where it is located, didn't check)
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Erathna project compensates for April. Guess that's why the interest as well.
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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by wagonr on Thu May 14, 2015 8:33 am

I think VLL will lead power sector this time. It's worth collecting at current price.
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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by slstock on Thu May 14, 2015 8:39 am

It was worth collecting at RS 3.5 -4 when it was discussed. I think First Guy was into into then.

Again highlighted it when someone asked for opinion to sell at Rs 6.2/.3
Now ran 100 from bottom%.

If entering best to wait till the 8.0 to 8.4 price change period gets stabilized ( and maybe march results are seen)

They may give good dividend.





wagonr wrote:I think VLL will lead power sector this time. It's worth collecting at current price.

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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by First Guy on Thu May 21, 2015 11:31 pm

First Guy wrote:First results out with dividend and it's PAP. Can you take  guess on others? Wink HPWR is making good moves every few days.

My guess is around 0.01/- EPS for VPEL, around 0.15/- for VLL and 0.20/- for HPFL

At least got that one right Smile
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Re: Rainy season and Mini-Hydro power sector

Post by First Guy on Mon May 25, 2015 8:31 pm

VLL prediction by me was a #FAIL but annual result is still good.

No talk about HPFL *ahem* wonder what the result is. chinwi would be mightily pleased Smile
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