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Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by slstock on Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:28 am

Yin-Yang wrote:
slstock wrote:+
+
+

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


2)
Yin-Yang wrote:Why do you guys want the index to go up only?

Ans :  Because ,

a) It is the need at this time to boost Investor/Trader confidence

b)  ASI is "ALL SHARES". This is about almost everybody winning at CSE .  Not only the "me"/"us" for  the shares we hold.

c) CSE which is reflected by ASI does not deserve to be trading at PE of 10, PBV 1.2 and Dividend yield of over 3% ( in 2010 it was trading at PE of 26, PBV of 3  etc)

d) we need to get rid of our Fear psychosis and finding negatives always , which is also contributing to   make CSE go down


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



3)  Stated in the article

"Let market positivity build based on FACTS. Not Stupid FEARS and negativity."


I see you"ll still  want to talk about Foreign selling, rupee depreciation, political uncertainty etc but  
we are still overlooking the facts presented and the Positives of CSE.

Can you please read the article as all of these presumptions have been addressed with Facts.

While you are doing it , can someone  please answer why

most markets in ASIA have been up (in average) for last 2 years while some of them  having  the same negatives mentioned for Sri Lanka.  

So why is only CSE down 20%  while stats are positive day by day ?
Why is our neighbor India up 40%? )


My friend,
trying to make the Index go up is like trying to buy a Merc Limo to show that you're rich to yourself.

Let the things show their real status and let people live by their means.

If you are not rich enough to afford, the Merc might not make you rich but make you bankrupt.

Only 'manipulators' would try to jack up or pull down the indexes artificially.
+
+
+


So you want to Jack it up?



Ying Yang,

If you want the index to go down. Let it go down.  I cannot control it anyway.  Who said I can?  

But this is a pretty screwed up way to undermine the effort put here and interpret it wrongly while shooting our own foot.

If you don't like this research/facts presented , best to say nothing than making a demotivating post is it not? If you want to to counter them and prove me wrong, show research facts to counter them.

Market is dead , nobody is posting at forums , everyone is negative , and now you try to demotivate a few  who take effort to show facts with research .




I showed facts only here. I can't make market go up.  I made this post to show another side with some positivity people don't research or talk about. I saw some people at the forum requesting an update too.

Market has finally started to raise head for few days after continuously falling.
And now further negativity!

Let CSE go to 5000 if that is all of you at this forum too want.
I saw some people in cyberspace at full speed  trying to show how bad CSE is.
I always see you go silent and ignore real manipulation attempt which are obvious
to us , but make twisted/screwed up statement as such for the people who keep the forum alive !

This post was not made for my personal benefit but for public info.
I can go silent easily as I have far more crucial things to do.

Have a good day!


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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by CK on Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:32 am

What ever the view of yours, one should appreciate the tireless effort of sls.
Very good reading and thanks.
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:29 pm

As a long-term investor, I am not concerned about this "Yin - Yang" in the market, as long as my shares are giving me reasonable returns regularly.
Up to now, my selections have not failed me.  Very Happy
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by Ethical Trader on Mon Jul 16, 2018 2:33 pm

Thank you very much for the lengthy analysis on the effect of interest rates on the CSE.

Central Banks all over the world use this time tested tool(interest rates) either to mop up the excess liquidity or to boost money supply when the economy needs more liquidity. Both of us agree on this matter.

CSE reached its zenith just after the war owing to the expectations of many (both local & foreign) over economic recovery. As you correctly said the market crashed after it was felt it was over valued. Those who were in power missed a Golden Opportunity prevailed after the war for not properly managing the euphoria for the betterment of the country. As this unprecedented Rise & Fall will never be repeated it is not fare to compare it with the current scenario.

I agree with you when you lament over the lethargy of local fund managers, whose hands are tight now after many events of misuse of public funds during the previous regime and the Bond Scam during the current regime. This too contributes negatively to the liquidity of the CSE.

Any way market seems rehashing for another Run after you appeared in the forum. I wish you Good health SLS.
slstock wrote:ET, Thanks for taking time to find some useful  material to answer
questions and add positively to the discussion!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


INTEREST RATES VS CSE


Let study the interest rate effect on CSE.

Yes, Interest rates have some effect as mentioned in logical sense.  
But I will demo below it is only a minute part of the equation to make
the irrational CSE boom.


~~~~~~~~~~~


Some facts on CB rates  to note :

* In 2009 when CSE was in major bull run , 1 year Treasury rates were high as 13%

* by 2010 when CSE was still running in full steam , rates dropped to around 9%

Surprisingly , our current rates  ( in July 2018) are around same 9% as in 2010 !  Add to that , much higher cost of living and so much
higher $/imports costs!  But ASI is trying to be pushed  back to 2010 times !! 



* In 2011 , when rates were low as 7% , CSE started its crash!
 ( Even the interest rate being low , the crash was evident,  mainly due to over
  valuation of CSE at PE  of 26 ,  PBV of 3+ etc  ) .


As we can  now see interest rates are only part of what happens at CSE.

I can demo further interest rate effect vs Stock market booms/downs  
using USA , but even without it now we can see interest rates are only
one part of the formula to make CSE boom .

I only wish it was direct we can solely pin  our Central Bank/Rates
for the mess at CSE.

It evidently goes much beyond! CSE behaves very differently to norms
anyway. This is what I was/am trying to address in this  article.




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Also we need to note that Rs to $ has inflated a lot since 2010.
Cost of living has ballooned in SL.

In a country like Sri Lanka  where many people depend on bank/FD interest income ,
CB dropping rates a lot will hurt a lot of  them.

Right now am sure many  people have lot of issues with rising cost of living and added taxes .

Only relief is the interest income.  
So Central  Bank has to be careful on that aspect too when they manage rates.  


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Considering all this , is one more reason why CSE should not be dropping like this and it should serve as additional source of income atleast to let what is of value to reach it value !







~~~~~~~~~~
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by serene on Mon Jul 16, 2018 6:35 pm

It's not that difficult to find who is with the Jack and what is he trying to do with it.Jack it up or down.
Please continue the good work we are seeing some positive and very insightful constructive discussion after long time.

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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by serene on Mon Jul 16, 2018 6:36 pm

Kith really happy for you.

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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by Yin-Yang on Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:52 pm

slstock wrote:
Ying Yang,

+
+
show research facts to counter them.  

Market is dead , nobody is posting at forums , everyone is negative , and now you try to demotivate a few  who take effort to show facts with research .


+
+



My Friend,

You do like research
I do, too like research.

We two have some things in common; even if in opposite sides of the coin.

Here are two simple research for you and me mate.


Research Number-1:

Your beloved CSE index in last 5 years;



https://www.ceicdata.com/datapage/charts/o_sri-lanka_equity-market-index-month-end-cse-all-share?type=area&period=5y&lang=en


Now Research Number-2:

GDP growth in Sri Lanka iin last 5 years;



https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/sri-lanka-gdp-growth?embed.png&s=sri+lankagdpqoq&v=201807031547v&d1=20130101&d2=20181231&type=area

This is called Cause and effect my friend.

+
+
+

Sometimes, roosters might think the sun rises because they are crowing in the morning.

The market is like sun.
We, you and me, are just roosters.

That;s the other thing in common between, you and me.
+
+
+
Roosters!
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by Ethical Trader on Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:05 pm

Trying to analyze the erratic CSE with facts & logic can't be equated to crowing my dear. If one finds opposing views he can put forward them as an educated person. SLS is one concerned individual trying to enlighten the investors despite his poor health conditions. He is helpless when the very people benefited by his yeoman service are sarcastic of him.

I have not seen same treatment over alleged manipulators of the market. confused
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by serene on Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:47 pm

Ethical Trader wrote:Trying to analyze the erratic CSE with facts & logic can't be equated to crowing my dear. If one finds opposing views he can put forward them as an educated person. SLS is one concerned individual trying to enlighten the investors despite his poor health conditions. He is helpless when the very people benefited by his yeoman service are sarcastic of him.

I have not seen same treatment over alleged manipulators of the market. confused

True ET.
There is nothing to prove as SLS analyses the whole scenario as it is and he is not predicting anything. It is just an objective analysis so there shouldn't be any opinion opposing or in favor of SLS.
May be there are are some investors who are mastered the CSE and find SLS write up useless. But we have to be patient for the sake of thousand of novice investors who hugely benefit from these kind of analyses. So open invitation for all are to share their knowledge for the benefit of all respecting others ideas. study study

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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by Yin-Yang on Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:52 pm

Ethical Trader wrote:
+
+


I have not seen same treatment over alleged manipulators of the market. confused

Show me the list
and the list of threads
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by Ethical Trader on Tue Jul 17, 2018 5:14 pm

Thank you for the inquiry. I gave you a + rep just for that enthusiasm expressed.

Well, its better not open cans of werms. Let us concentrate on share discussions.

Yin-Yang wrote:
Ethical Trader wrote:
+
+


I have not seen same treatment over alleged manipulators of the market. confused

Show me the list
and the list of threads
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by Yin-Yang on Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:14 pm

Ethical Trader wrote:
+
+

Well, its better not open cans of werms. Let us concentrate on share discussions.

+
+


Brother,
You brought it up that there are a bunch of villains I need to tackle.
Then I asked you to show them.
Then you're telling me there are no villains.

Cannot comprehend.

Are you scared of them?

Either you shouldn't have referred to them in the fist place or you have to show me all of them; one by one.
+
+
once and for all.
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by nihal123 on Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:15 pm

Dear ET,
I give you + rep,
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by slstock on Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:38 am

Yin-Yang wrote:

"Your beloved CSE index in last 5 years; ..."


Aiyo? So CSE index is mine only ?  
So you are not a Sri Lankan  YY ?    
Oh I see now . This explains a lot about the things you say/behavior.



Yin-Yang wrote:
This is called Cause and effect my friend.

Thanks for the education!
So  GDP was the main reason for CSE downfall ?

How about this.
Since  I was for a change trying to talk about the positive side of  CSE ,
maybe you can list all the negatives of CSE.
Then we can make this post balanced with positives and negatives of CSE.


Yin-Yang wrote:
Sometimes, roosters might think the sun rises because they are crowing in the morning.

The market is like sun.
We, you and me, are just roosters.

That;s the other thing in common between, you and me.
Roosters!

Cock a doodle doo !
Now your turn to say sing/say it Rooster Brother.


Last edited by slstock on Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:01 am; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by slstock on Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:49 am

serene wrote:Really appreciate SLS for the effort and the dedication put upon on Comprehensive write up which covers all the facets one can draw to explain the doom state of CSE.
If i were to come up with any explanations for the same I wouldn't be able to come up with any plausible explanation other than boils down this Languishing and utter chaotic CSE behavior to inter connection between the Share Markets and the capabilities and Confidants  Investors could put upon on Politicians( ruling party as well as the Opposition) of their respective countries. Otherwise why only us.

Sadly yes, it not the value  that matter to most people at CSE.

Developed markets (  though naturally acting on sentiments at times) , responds more to reason/valuations in medium term. Politics/politicians seems to have a too big of a role in SL investor minds. We are generally of bunch of people who are influenced/brain washed easily even if a lie can be seen in front of our eyes.




serene wrote:
But still we are collecting fundamentally sound shares which are at a really appealing prices.And also keep the eye on possible trading opportunities once the market is turned.
But the million dollar question is When???


But I see you are immune to such and thinking on the right path Smile
When?
Well did you notice the market turned green and now  trying to consolidate.
Will negative people and other forces try to break the current consolidation/positivity  to bring it down again ? Will other start selling their PE 3-4 shares too?  
That maybe the next  million $ question now ?
If so more ASI downfall can come.


Last edited by slstock on Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:22 am; edited 2 times in total

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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:49 am

Roosters crowing, Water Boiling etc and finally the Red flags appearing again.
I thought this was a self-regulated forum, unlike other ones. Shocked
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by slstock on Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:50 am

malanp wrote:Sls
thank you for valuable thoughts. what I feel is the biggest problem Sri Lanka have is we do not have good local fund managers . May be they all have paper qualifications but go with the tide of traders. They have traders mentality .

A good fund manager  can see the market opportunities and reap the benefits later . 20% annual return is more than enough to buy a share.  It is not happening as we can see so many beaten down shares remain in the market so many years.. it is not possible in a country with good fund managers are active as a beaten down share is immidiatly picked up by fund managers ,then share price is recovered within a short period of time.

So we should not blame the government, economy or eroding rupee value. These are not the reasons. The main reason is CSE is only for traders , Investors have yet to enter the place..


You have a point reg the Fund managers Malan.

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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by slstock on Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:55 am

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:As a long-term investor, I am not concerned about this "Yin - Yang" in the market, as long as my shares are giving me reasonable returns regularly.
Up to now, my selections have not failed me.  Very Happy


Am happy your "Dividend shares" are treating you well.
I too am not bothered about my portfolio  as I am alright with it.  

But we also need to think about  the plight of many others at CSE
who might be suffering ( due market not even treating their value shares right)

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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:05 am

We are not institutional or High worth investors to be able to change the direction of the market.
But as small-time investors, we can play our part in our own ways by diverting excess cash into CSE.
This is what I had been doing lately.
Whether it helped to change the overall outlook of the market I am not sure but my portfolio looks much healthier now than a few months ago.  Very Happy

slstock wrote:
කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:As a long-term investor, I am not concerned about this "Yin - Yang" in the market, as long as my shares are giving me reasonable returns regularly.
Up to now, my selections have not failed me.  Very Happy


Am happy your "Dividend shares" are treating you well.
I too am not bothered about my portfolio  as I am alright with it.  

But we also need to think about  the plight of many others at CSE
who might be suffering  ( due market not even treating their value shares right)
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by slstock on Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:16 am

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:We are not institutional or High worth investors to be able to change the direction of the market.
But as small-time investors, we can play our part in our own ways by diverting excess cash into CSE.
This is what I had been doing lately.
Whether it helped to change the overall outlook of the market I am not sure but my portfolio looks much healthier now than a few months ago.  Very Happy

slstock wrote:
කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:As a long-term investor, I am not concerned about this "Yin - Yang" in the market, as long as my shares are giving me reasonable returns regularly.
Up to now, my selections have not failed me.  Very Happy


Am happy your "Dividend shares" are treating you well.
I too am not bothered about my portfolio  as I am alright with it.  

But we also need to think about  the plight of many others at CSE
who might be suffering  ( due market not even treating their value shares right)


Kithsiri, yes we are  not high networth or institutional investors.

Some people here asked for an update.
I honored such and took lot of my time to make this post. .
I also felt the need as there maybe many silent other suffering due to  constant market falls. My way of thinking maybe different to many.

This post was trying to educate investors  about some facts/research/positive
things on CSE which are not discussed in the present  sea of negativity.

I tried!


Last edited by slstock on Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:24 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by CK on Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:19 am

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:We are not institutional or High worth investors to be able to change the direction of the market.

True. But SLS writing has the power to make some impact to the market as I believe. So SLS not a rooster like me or most of others.
(This is only a my personal opinion and treat this as a positive comment.)
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by slstock on Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:32 am

spw19721 wrote:Thank You SLS sir for your valuable contribution.This Time I didnt go panic (Actually no need to) as I was in 2015 . Im happy to say I got succeed in averaging down LFIN (118) , REXP (170) , SAMP (290) .

In addition,collected CIND(30) ,HDFC (27), CRL (30) in small quantities.only GRAN(78) & PLC (16.5) shows some relative loss.  

But If recall in 2015-2016, I suffered around 30%,-50% losses holding SFL (22) ,BOGA (28),CHOT(30),TYRE(80) etc.. Shocked Shocked  .

This forum made my perspective from a pathetic loser for a patient investor.You have helped me a lot to come out from the woods. Now I know how to surive in storms.

besides I should thank the writers who started following threads which showed me something which my stockbroker would hate to admit,, Laughing Laughing

1) http://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t10486-dividends-dividends-dividends-what-a-damage

2) http://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t8608-dividend-cash-cows-tales#74919

If CSE dip more , for me no need to panic coz I have 9-10% return  giving cash cows which will give more in coming years. I can utilize those dividends for risky trades .If I lose,no heart attacks , still can sleep well.

Hats off for all experienced writers who taught me to be patient like the ants among locusts.

Happy to see your  post and you are venturing by your own now without negative influences affecting you.  

Also my acknowledgement for taking time to be appreciative to all those who helped.
A trait , many Sri lankans forget.

We flatter, use and discard .
Sometime then we attack the same who helped too after usage.
Then we go again to find the next useful "branch".
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This thread so far I see has over 1000 views in only a few days.
Many I see logged onto the forum too.

Many silent readers.

But how may had the courtesy to even take a few seconds to give a
constructive feedback /thought ??

So thank you for the comment SPW.

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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by Yin-Yang on Wed Jul 18, 2018 12:35 pm

Yin-Yang wrote:
Ethical Trader wrote:
+
+

Well, its better not open cans of werms. Let us concentrate on share discussions.

+
+


Brother,
You brought it up that there are a bunch of villains I need to tackle.
Then I asked you to show them.
Then you're telling me there are no villains.

Cannot comprehend.

Are you scared of them?

Either you shouldn't have referred to them in the fist place or you have to show me all of them; one by one.
+
+
once and for all.

C'on Buddy! Show me the list!!

Otherwise, we have to conclude that your fear of this Manipulators is just baseless cries.

Just like your claims on market analysis.

As well as your claims on expertise on all those unrelated fields; useful to none.
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by Ethical Trader on Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:04 pm

Be cool bro. Your slip is showing.
Yin-Yang wrote:
Yin-Yang wrote:
Ethical Trader wrote:
+
+

Well, its better not open cans of werms. Let us concentrate on share discussions.

+
+


Brother,
You brought it up that there are a bunch of villains I need to tackle.
Then I asked you to show them.
Then you're telling me there are no villains.

Cannot comprehend.

Are you scared of them?

Either you shouldn't have referred to them in the fist place or you have to show me all of them; one by one.
+
+
once and for all.

C'on Buddy! Show me the list!!

Otherwise, we have to conclude that your fear of this Manipulators is just baseless cries.

Just like your claims on market analysis.

As well as your claims on expertise on all those unrelated fields; useful to none.
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by Yin-Yang on Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:44 pm

Ethical Trader wrote:Be cool bro. Your slip is showing.


Dear Mr. H+++++ri

As a, so called, expert and practitioner in legal matters, you have to learn to carry some weight and consciousnesses in what you state ne bro.

Using just loose words without any hard and provable evidence is a sure way to loose you case yo.

Show up whatever left of your perceived maturity; will ya?


+
+
+
BTW: Gave few + reps so you might get encouraged
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