Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
- slstockVeteran
- Posts : 6216
Join date : 2014-06-12
Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
Fact 1 :
ASI was 7500+ in Aug 2015 !
Nearly 3 years later , with many companies improving asset values,
ASI is 20% down ( when it should be up) and has nearly hit 6000!
ASI is now back at same stage ( 6000+) as March 2016 !
What the hell ? Pettah market must be a better investment than CSE right?
Fact 2:
Do you know CSE is one of the most attractive Frontier markets in the world right now based on multiples it is trading at? CSE is trading at PE of around 10, PBV of 1.2+ and dividend yield of 3.2%.
Is it worth to invest at CSE?
Title question and latter question, am sure are in most investor's minds right?
To be honest I too was getting dejected about CSE as it has been a real waste of
Investment over the last few years.
Even putting in an FD would bring easy 12%.
At CSE except for Dividends ( which by now are taxed at 14% shamefully make things worse)
and occasional tiny rallies which will reverse eventually ( why?), there is no justice for even
the strong Gems of Shares right? We only see our investment going down and down ?
I always wondered why CSE had so many Traders/short term people compared to Investors.
I think I now know the answer why this happens.
a) most people who entered CSE forums were people who are new to CSE and
only saw the extreme volatility of CSE within the few years of presence
b) many like to make quick money and consider patient investing a waste of opportunity anyway.
So with a volatile CSE they will ask why hold shares to lose money when we can "Anna and Panna"
Well the sad fact is there weren't too many Anna Panna trading ops even for past few years!
EVERYONE is in the soup !
Though I can't blame anyone who turns styles due to the volatility, I have to point out
this issue is a chicken and egg story.
CSE is so volatile as too many people panic and sell, even value gems for ridiculous prices.
If all held their valuable shares, there will be No one to sell. Then Buyer demand will naturally increase.
But when valuable shares are at ridiculous prices, some will then ask why should we care about
Fundamentals/Value shares which don't move ?
See Chicken and Egg story again.
When we create a negative market , the greedy , now places their buy orders lower and lower.
ASI goes lower and lower.
(Btw the most of the greediest people in the world are usually the people who have the money.
Usually people with little are more generous ( and one can find truth in what I say in real life too right?)
See the cycle?
We can easily blame the Government ( which I do too as they really have let CSE rot )
or the World, but do you see How WE too contribute to this mess !!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Now lets start some Analysis ...
How is CSE performing compared to other Asian Countries ?
Note the Chart.
India VS Sri Lanka!
India ( Sensex) has gone up by about 40% since 2016.
YES India has gone up 40%.
Indian Market PE is over 20 from what I recall.
But CSE market PE is cheap at about 10. ( in 2011 PE was 25+ when everyone
was thinking to sell their Ati kukulas to buy shares)
But even at this very cheap rate CSE is down 20% . Say what? WHY really?
Even Bangladesh ( DSEX) which is considered a messier country than CSE on corruption,
is so much better than CSE ! Almost all Asian market from Pakistan to Japan has been up taking
from 10-40% considering the a period of 2 years from 2016 !
Do you see what is happening at CSE is simply SHAMEFUL and UNWARRANTED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Let look at the USA/World situation and how it affects CSE
USA share market ( Dow Jones index) was up by about 30% since Trump came
into power ( Jan 2017).
Even with constant FED rate hikes ( FED Reserve is the counter part to SL Central Bank),
still index is 20% up from Jan 2017! Yes Interest Rate hikes makes stock markets lethargic,
but it doesn't have to happen like Sri Lanka. Actually in SL, interest rate has been cut recently.
But anyway our CSE likes to go reverse 20% ! Wonder of Asia.
When US interest rate go up, many of the big fund in US can pull money out of foreign shares.
It has world effect. Yes. But how does that related to tiny CSE?
As far as I saw , there has really not been % wise massive Foreign selling at the tiny CSE
( except for LLUB which has special problems I discussed before) .
In Summary:
FED rate hike and world impact is not much at tiny CSE.
HEY WAIT ! But even if this is a world issue, then how come India/Bangladesh shares market up by 40%/20% . Political uncertainty? What about other nations in ASIA with Political issues. Why are their stock market up? Currency depreciation? India and many Asian currencies depreciated. Why only CSE down by 20% from 2015?
WE SRI LANKANS ARE ROYALLY DIGGING OUR OWN GRAVES at CSE AS FAR AS I SEE.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`
WHO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR DIGGING GRAVE?
1) most was mentioned in the below post
http://investorsentiment.forumotion.net/t10483-hello-and-cse#87308
2) now more was mentioned in this post
HERE is a QUESTION FOR YOU ?
How come EPF bought GRAN over Rs 200 in 2010, but now not interested in it at Rs 60 even.
Why is NAV Rs 290 and PE of 6 share ( APLA) trading at Rs 90 with no interest?
Why are so many shares trading at 50% asset Value and nobody is interested?
Why is Dividend 14% share trading at the lowest price I seen in 3 years !
Hey but wait!
So it is rupee depreciation? World impact?
Hey India has them too then!
India is up 40% and market PE is over 20.
Our shares are trading at PE of 4-5 ! But down 20% from 2015.
CSE Investors/Traders doesn't care , except to complain and worry.
Government doesn't care , except to do nothing.
I guess we are waiting for Foreigner to tell us to stop selling our valuable shares
and come buy from us right ? Our Story since our Independance!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Lets look at some CSE Charts/ Techicnals
BAD :
By Last week, CSE RSI /MACD numbers were the lowest seen in many years !
Yes Coppock is negative, a bad sign for investors.
ADX was trending up in negative market.
Most indicators I saw were negative still.
Can this bad be turned good?
YES! IF WE WANT TO !!!!
RSI /MACD being lowest is very good sign for some real reversal IF WE WANT IT ?
MACD crossing can happen within another day of continuous green.
RSI can go over 30 again with another day of green.
ADX reversing trend ( it has started already with last green days) is a good.
Bollinger will close his mouth with another few days of green ( if we want the green without selling that is )
ps : There were several Technical people always stating that Charts never lie and they are always accurate.
I think during the last 12 or so months none of such came to put out their firm predictions. They disappear when market is in trouble (appear only when market is in boom). I think these predictions are more useful if they can do it to help public when in distress. Not when market is positive and every share is going up. (No this is not attacking anyone but merely stating a FACT here. No one should take personal )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`
How to continue the trend and reverse this negative market?
1) Stop freaking selling specially your Valuable shares at ridiculous prices.( some are at 5 year low)
You will get poorer due to no patience and some cunning person will get richer thank to you.
2) Stop spreading unnecessary market negativity for your selfish gains.
Political uncertainty my foot. If so why has LFIN being not effected and declared Rs 11 dividend
and their assets are ever improving. I saw even GREG declared the highest dividend of their life.
Why has COMB, NDB, SAMP and many other companies performing so well?
3) Let market positivity build based on FACTS. Not Stupid FEARS and negativity.
How about letting these foreigner do what they are doing in
India and Bangladesh ( somehow those market are up 20-40% with 2 years )
4) Don't Buy on Credit ( I have made that mistake)
5) If the SL Government cares at all about CSE, let the state Funds starts buying into value shares.
This is the time for EPF to make killing if they buy at all time low prices and hold for longer term.
(Not like in 2010 when they buy highest and waste public money!)
6) Institutions, Funds and Banks/Companies needs to start buying Value shares step by step.
HEY INDIA IS 40% up.
USA is 20% up even with Fed hikes.
Almost all Asia markets are up ( except Singapore which our government now seems to follow I guess)
But CSE is trading at PE of 10, PBV of 1.2 and dividend yield of 3.2%.
No one cares.
We complain and add further to lower the numbers.
WONDER OF ASIA.
All we see is a Hallmark of a Nation filled with people
a) who complain and constantly think selfishly
b) do nothing to help but just wait for other to do things for them
c) do not try to get the 100 Pots of Gold but point to the pot of Cow dung
d) have no team spirit and respect/courtesy for fellow citizens ( or not sure even themselves )
WE CAN COLLECTIVE STOP THIS MESS IF WE WANT TO.
LET STOP CLOWNING AROUND.
WAKE UP ...
a) GOVERNMENT (WHO ARE PAID PUBLIC MONEY TO SERVE PUBLIC)
b) CSE/SEC OFFICALS WHO ARE PAID PUBLIC MONEY TO MAKE CSE BETTER
c) INVESTORS
d) TRADERS
e) HIGH NETWORTH PEOPLE
Don't dig out own grave and blame another!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Finally
PS : I don't care for people who are blind followers of Former President or Current President/PM.
I have seen and this time too I see people with Political bias spreading negativity to bring CSE down.
It happened during Mara time ( I/we fought against it) and it is happen now too.
Don't shoot ourselves in the foot by ruining CSE trying to support your political Idols.
Those who try to bring CSE down based on politics , note the Common facts I see in all of these politicians.
a) All of them care about only themselves and their want to be in power than worrying about
the country or the suffering citizen
b) all of them are in the lists of richest people in Sri Lanka
http://www.asiantribune.com/node/91612
( hope there are none here to argue that this report is false completely and
they all are just like us trying to make ends meet )
I think for once people should stop going shopping for political parties and think collectively
about how to build Sri Lanka Lanka/CSE.
All developed nations including Japan built on National spirit.
Not selfishness or worshiping the wrong idols.
Btw, now that the market started to move up a bit , start worrying and start selling
your valuable shares ( some of which still has room fundamentally to run 50-100% maybe).
Then we can drag ASI down again , blame others and complain again to keep this stinking falling cycle going.
_________________
Never listen to anyone including myself without your own study. Only few truly genuine people exist in this world.
Please read : https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t1548-important-warning-and-message
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- RanaTop contributor
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
- lanka
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
- කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
But this market gave me enough and more chances to average a few counters down.
CSE is like ආඩි හත්දෙනාගේ කැද හැලිය වගේ දැන්.
_________________
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Socrates
- slstockVeteran
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
Do you know CSE is one of the most attractive Frontier markets in the world right now based on multiples it is trading at?
Did you note the research details/info gathered and presented from around the world?
Did you note the real reason why CSE as a whole was going down instead of up ( which it actually deserves)?
ps : This post took me many many hours to research and present.
I hope atleast few to take time to read to see the depth ( if not for the effort put to do this)
_________________
Never listen to anyone including myself without your own study. Only few truly genuine people exist in this world.
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- yellow knifeTop contributor
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
Yeah....You are doing the duty of a national leader.
Why is CSE down... Yeah because people sell irrespective of our efforts to show the value of what they sell at damn cheap prices.
I think the number of views of following is less than 1000 for the post that I asked investors to act wisely where if I wrote something negative adding hay to fire, the view list would have been more..
Market often supply what you need.
http://investorsentiment.forumotion.net/t4491-time-for-brave-hearts?highlight=brave+hearts
- කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
Bought PAP & BERU just for the dividend.
To wrap it up, a few in SAMP to reach a nice looking number.
(Waiting for a one shot one share one million investment).
_________________
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- Ethical TraderTop contributor
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
Yes, we never want CSE to be like this but the size of our market is so tiny that even one foreign investor could manipulate it with his "tiny fund". Though it may be tiny for him its very big for the CSE.
Current downward journey started with the lethargy of the local investors (mainly due to high artificial interest rates) and aggravated by foreign selling (mainly due to Fed rate hike & devaluation of the rupee) recently. Ad hoc taxes and price controls also killed some of the well managed companies.
I always advise not to panic when such things happen and make it an opportunity to buy with ready cash.
However, investors are not philanthropists. They always park their funds where most benefits could be obtained. This is the reality.
Having said that, I maintain that CSE is very attractive in terms of global terms and very soon things will be OK. Until such time let us fish best options freely available.
- The AlchemistTop contributor
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:Last week I averaged down following REXP / CTBL / HPL & GLAS.
Bought PAP & BERU just for the dividend.
To wrap it up, a few in SAMP to reach a nice looking number.
(Waiting for a one shot one share one million investment).
Nice Picks Kiths and super write up Sls !
For me, the only consolation is that market is weighed down by "index manipulations" i.e ASPI index heavy shares down by small volumes. some good shares down 20 % in past month maybe on total volume of say 20,000 shares out of say 100 million share capital.
maybe due to margin calls etc due to rapid slide in last month.
Foreign selling on JKH and Banks and other Blue Chips may be due to Rupee weakening / Dollar strengthening, Continuing Govt Fiasco's which may last for medium term and Tax & Accounting implications.
Good time to slowly bottom pick and the rewards will be good down the road, can never say when :-)
As usual, I have an eye on a company that said this in the beginning of their recently released AR
"To every stakeholder who stands with us at the beginning of this
new year, our promise of absolute integrity, continuous growth and
exceptional results remains; and we invite you to venture with us
beyond borders."
invitations & promises are ignored at your own peril :-)
- Ethical TraderTop contributor
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
- Ethical TraderTop contributor
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:Last week I averaged down following REXP / CTBL / HPL & GLAS.
Bought PAP & BERU just for the dividend.
To wrap it up, a few in SAMP to reach a nice looking number.
(Waiting for a one shot one share one million investment).
- CKActive Member
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
so kith what are your leading contenders up to now?කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote::
(Waiting for a one shot one share one million investment).[/i]
(my pick is bfl due to it's comparative illiquidity and will pick up rapidly when things going that way. but I m sure you are not a fan of poultry)
some interesting points gathering around flch also...
- Ethical TraderTop contributor
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
- yellow knifeTop contributor
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
What we are worried must be the entire market situation
- mymoney
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
- Yin-Yang
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
- spw19721Active Member
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
In addition,collected CIND(30) ,HDFC (27), CRL (30) in small quantities.only GRAN(78) & PLC (16.5) shows some relative loss.
But If recall in 2015-2016, I suffered around 30%,-50% losses holding SFL (22) ,BOGA (28),CHOT(30),TYRE(80) etc.. .
This forum made my perspective from a pathetic loser for a patient investor.You have helped me a lot to come out from the woods. Now I know how to surive in storms.
besides I should thank the writers who started following threads which showed me something which my stockbroker would hate to admit,,
1) https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t10486-dividends-dividends-dividends-what-a-damage
2) https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t8608-dividend-cash-cows-tales#74919
If CSE dip more , for me no need to panic coz I have 9-10% return giving cash cows which will give more in coming years. I can utilize those dividends for risky trades .If I lose,no heart attacks , still can sleep well.
Hats off for all experienced writers who taught me to be patient like the ants among locusts.
- slstockVeteran
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
Reflecting on the comments, I feel only 2 people have taken time to look at/understand the DEEPER message which was presented with FACTS/proof but still not have not been considered even?
1)
yellow knife wrote:My dear friends...we like the readers of Lagna (planetary positions) prefer to see only the share we have picked will move up.
What we are worried must be the entire market situation
Exactly. Thank you YK.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
2)
Yin-Yang wrote:Why do you guys want the index to go up only?
Ans : Because ,
a) It is the need at this time to boost Investor/Trader confidence
b) ASI is "ALL SHARES". This is about almost everybody winning at CSE . Not only the "me"/"us" for the shares we hold.
c) CSE which is reflected by ASI does not deserve to be trading at PE of 10, PBV 1.2 and Dividend yield of over 3% ( in 2010 it was trading at PE of 26, PBV of 3 etc)
d) we need to get rid of our Fear psychosis and finding negatives always , which is also contributing to make CSE go down
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
3) Stated in the article
"Let market positivity build based on FACTS. Not Stupid FEARS and negativity."
I see you"ll still want to talk about Foreign selling, rupee depreciation, political uncertainty etc but
we are still overlooking the facts presented and the Positives of CSE.
Can you please read the article as all of these presumptions have been addressed with Facts.
While you are doing it , can someone please answer why
most markets in ASIA have been up (in average) for last 2 years while some of them having the same negatives mentioned for Sri Lanka.
So why is only CSE down 20% while stats are positive day by day ?
Why is our neighbor India up 40%? )
_________________
Never listen to anyone including myself without your own study. Only few truly genuine people exist in this world.
Please read : https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t1548-important-warning-and-message
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- sereneTop contributor
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
If i were to come up with any explanations for the same I wouldn't be able to come up with any plausible explanation other than boils down this Languishing and utter chaotic CSE behavior to inter connection between the Share Markets and the capabilities and Confidants Investors could put upon on Politicians( ruling party as well as the Opposition) of their respective countries. Otherwise why only us.
But still we are collecting fundamentally sound shares which are at a really appealing prices.And also keep the eye on possible trading opportunities once the market is turned.
But the million dollar question is When???
- malanp
- Posts : 518
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
thank you for valuable thoughts. what I feel is the biggest problem Sri Lanka have is we do not have good local fund managers . May be they all have paper qualifications but go with the tide of traders. They have traders mentality .
A good fund manager can see the market opportunities and reap the benefits later . 20% annual return is more than enough to buy a share. It is not happening as we can see so many beaten down shares remain in the market so many years.. it is not possible in a country with good fund managers are active as a beaten down share is immidiatly picked up by fund managers ,then share price is recovered within a short period of time.
So we should not blame the government, economy or eroding rupee value. These are not the reasons. The main reason is CSE is only for traders , Investors have yet to enter the place..
- කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වාTop contributor
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
Got to make the move soon.
CK wrote:so kith what are your leading contenders up to now?කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote::
(Waiting for a one shot one share one million investment).[/i]
(my pick is bfl due to it's comparative illiquidity and will pick up rapidly when things going that way. but I m sure you are not a fan of poultry)
some interesting points gathering around flch also...
_________________
I am the wisest man alive, for I know one thing, and that is that I know nothing.
Socrates
- CKActive Member
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
- Ethical TraderTop contributor
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
slstock wrote:
While you are doing it , can someone please answer why
most markets in ASIA have been up (in average) for last 2 years while some of them having the same negatives mentioned for Sri Lanka.
So why is only CSE down 20% while stats are positive day by day ?
Why is our neighbor India up 40%? )
This is the most pertinent question I would like to deal with here. Before that kindly refer to the following taken from the web-
" />
The answer to your question lies there. The culprit is the Central Bank of Sri Lanka and commercial banks, who suck all the funds with their out of ordinary high interest rates while all other countries in the region having almost half of what our Banks offer. I said the same thing in my previous answer saying investors are not philanthropists.
- slstockVeteran
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
questions and add positively to the discussion!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
INTEREST RATES VS CSE
Let study the interest rate effect on CSE.
Yes, Interest rates have some effect as mentioned in logical sense.
But I will demo below it is only a minute part of the equation to make
the irrational CSE boom.
~~~~~~~~~~~
Some facts on CB rates to note :
* In 2009 when CSE was in major bull run , 1 year Treasury rates were high as 13%
* by 2010 when CSE was still running in full steam , rates dropped to around 9%
Surprisingly , our current rates ( in July 2018) are around same 9% as in 2010 ! Add to that , much higher cost of living and so much
higher $/imports costs! But ASI is trying to be pushed back to 2010 times !!
* In 2011 , when rates were low as 7% , CSE started its crash!
( Even the interest rate being low , the crash was evident, mainly due to over
valuation of CSE at PE of 26 , PBV of 3+ etc ) .
As we can now see interest rates are only part of what happens at CSE.
I can demo further interest rate effect vs Stock market booms/downs
using USA , but even without it now we can see interest rates are only
one part of the formula to make CSE boom .
I only wish it was direct we can solely pin our Central Bank/Rates
for the mess at CSE.
It evidently goes much beyond! CSE behaves very differently to norms
anyway. This is what I was/am trying to address in this article.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Also we need to note that Rs to $ has inflated a lot since 2010.
Cost of living has ballooned in SL.
In a country like Sri Lanka where many people depend on bank/FD interest income ,
CB dropping rates a lot will hurt a lot of them.
Right now am sure many people have lot of issues with rising cost of living and added taxes .
Only relief is the interest income.
So Central Bank has to be careful on that aspect too when they manage rates.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Considering all this , is one more reason why CSE should not be dropping like this and it should serve as additional source of income atleast to let what is of value to reach it value !
~~~~~~~~~~
_________________
Never listen to anyone including myself without your own study. Only few truly genuine people exist in this world.
Please read : https://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t1548-important-warning-and-message
---------
- Yin-Yang
- Posts : 1321
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Re: Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?
slstock wrote:+
+
+
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
2)Yin-Yang wrote:Why do you guys want the index to go up only?
Ans : Because ,
a) It is the need at this time to boost Investor/Trader confidence
b) ASI is "ALL SHARES". This is about almost everybody winning at CSE . Not only the "me"/"us" for the shares we hold.
c) CSE which is reflected by ASI does not deserve to be trading at PE of 10, PBV 1.2 and Dividend yield of over 3% ( in 2010 it was trading at PE of 26, PBV of 3 etc)
d) we need to get rid of our Fear psychosis and finding negatives always , which is also contributing to make CSE go down
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
3) Stated in the article
"Let market positivity build based on FACTS. Not Stupid FEARS and negativity."
I see you"ll still want to talk about Foreign selling, rupee depreciation, political uncertainty etc but
we are still overlooking the facts presented and the Positives of CSE.
Can you please read the article as all of these presumptions have been addressed with Facts.
While you are doing it , can someone please answer why
most markets in ASIA have been up (in average) for last 2 years while some of them having the same negatives mentioned for Sri Lanka.
So why is only CSE down 20% while stats are positive day by day ?
Why is our neighbor India up 40%? )
My friend,
trying to make the Index go up is like trying to buy a Merc Limo to show that you're rich to yourself.
Let the things show their real status and let people live by their means.
If you are not rich enough to afford, the Merc might not make you rich but make you bankrupt.
Only 'manipulators' would try to jack up or pull down the indexes artificially.
+
+
+
So you want to Jack it up?